2026
Week 1 · Wednesday 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Seahawks offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Seahawks, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 13–10 from as low as 18% (Q4 15:00, down 10–3). The game turned for good at Q4 0:26: D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback (37% → 94%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:26NED.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.turning point37% → 94%
- 2Q4 11:38SEAD.Lock pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21% → 49%
- 3Q4 2:00NED.Maye pass short right to M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (E.Jones).24% → 48%
- 4Q4 0:38NED.Maye sacked at SEA 28 for -7 yards (D.Hall).33% → 51%
- 5Q4 1:30NER.Stevenson up the middle to SEA 28 for 8 yards (D.Hall; D.Witherspoon).48% → 62%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Hollins led the Patriots at +2.8 EPA (4 catches for 51). D.Lock led the Seahawks at +8.2 EPA (16 of 22 for 187).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 23/33 | 178 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson85% | 18 | 58% | 51 | -8.1 | |
| D.Maye100% | 7 | 23% | 47 | +7.3 | |
| C.Kiner11% | 6 | 19% | 11 | -2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Douglas62% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 20 | +0.5 | |
| R.Stevenson85% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 44 | -0.1 | |
| M.Hollins70% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 51 | +2.8 | |
| A.Brown44% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 26 | +1.3 | |
| H.Henry76% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 26 | +0.1 | |
| R.Doubs56% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -6.0 | |
| L.Larison4% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 9 | +0.1 | |
| E.Raridon54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +0.8 |
Defense D.Jones 1 sack, G.Jacas 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG, 1/1 XP, 4 pts
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Lock90% | 16/22 | 187 | 1 | 1 | +6.4 | |
| S.Darnold10% | 1/2 | 13 | 1 | -2.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Price48% | 10 | 45% | 52 | +1.0 | |
| G.Holani46% | 8 | 36% | 29 | -2.2 | |
| D.Lock90% | 2 | 9% | 13 | +1.7 | |
| E.Wilson6% | 2 | 9% | 3 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba90% | 11 | 46% | 8 | 122 | 1 | +7.7 |
| C.Kupp78% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 35 | +1.7 | |
| R.Shaheed66% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 4 | -2.9 | |
| B.Russell34% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 20 | +1.1 | |
| A.Barner88% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| J.Price48% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 6 | -0.7 | |
| G.Holani46% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
Defense J.Love 1 INT, J.Jobe 1 INT, N.Pritchett 1 INT, L.Williams 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/2 FG, 1/1 XP, 7 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Patriots give up 152 yards a game to wide receivers (23rd), against a league average of 147. Seahawks' wide receivers produce 181 (4th).
Deep left is open
Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Patriots
Seahawks convert 37% of third downs (27th). Patriots allow 38% (10th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Seahawks create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (18th). Patriots give them up at 9% (16th).
The Seahawks lead the series 6–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). They have won the last 5. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | NE 10 at SEA 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 22 · playoffs | SEA 29 at NE 13 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 · OT | SEA 23 at NE 20 |
| 2020 · Wk 2 | NE 30 at SEA 35 |
| 2016 · Wk 10 | SEA 31 at NE 24 |
2026 records
| Patriots | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Division | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 1–3 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 3–1 |
| Home | 3–0 | 3–2 |
| Away | 2–3 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 20.3 | 23.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.06#24 | +0.01#18 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#26 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#20 | 5.3#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 9%#16 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.02#18 | +0.08#22 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 8%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#30 | -0.09#14 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#22 | 3.8#11 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#27 | 38%#10 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#27 | 57%#12 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#4 | 152#23 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 30#29 | 52#15 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#30 | 7.9#20 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#19 | 31#15 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.