2026
Week 1 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Cardinals, 7 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cardinals won 26–14 from as low as 17% (Q2 13:42, tied 7–7). The Chargers had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 13:13: J.Herbert pass short left to T.Harris to LAC 19 for 3 yards (M.Melton; J.Sweat) [E.Leota] (50% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 12:28, 18 points for the Cardinals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 12:28ARIJ.Scott punt is BLOCKED by S.Fehoko, recovered by LAC-A.Ingold at LAC 3.57% → 74%
- 2Q2 13:37ARIO.Hampton left end to ARI 31 for -1 yards (A.Wingard). FUMBLES (A.Wingard), RECOVERED by ARI-W.Johnson at ARI 34.18% → 28%
- 3Q2 2:00ARIJ.Herbert sacked at ARI 13 for -10 yards (D.Stills).26% → 37%
- 4Q3 7:25LACJ.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to T.Harris. PENALTY on ARI-M.Melton, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards, enforced at LAC 40 - No Play.34% → 45%
- 5Q2 4:37LACJ.Herbert pass short left to O.Gadsden pushed ob at ARI 21 for 26 yards (A.Wingard).68% → 78%
- ★Q4 13:13ARIJ.Herbert pass short left to T.Harris to LAC 19 for 3 yards (M.Melton; J.Sweat) [E.Leota].turning point50% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Brissett led the Cardinals at +11.1 EPA (27 of 37 for 277). L.McConkey led the Chargers at +6.8 EPA (5 catches for 82).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 27/37 | 277 | 1 | 1 | +9.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Allgeier59% | 17 | 50% | 61 | -3.0 | |
| J.Love43% | 11 | 32% | 41 | 1 | +0.3 |
| J.Brissett100% | 6 | 18% | 14 | +2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride80% | 13 | 35% | 9 | 95 | 1 | +3.8 |
| K.Bourne67% | 8 | 22% | 8 | 75 | +5.8 | |
| M.Wilson85% | 7 | 19% | 5 | 56 | +1.9 | |
| J.Love43% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 9 | -1.6 | |
| M.Jr.79% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 33 | +0.9 | |
| T.Allgeier59% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 9 | -0.2 |
Defense A.Wingard 1 INT, D.Stills 1 sack, J.Burch 1 sack, B.Baker 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Ryland 4/5 FG (long 49)
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 17/27 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton58% | 12 | 57% | 43 | 1 | -4.6 |
| J.Herbert100% | 5 | 24% | 29 | -1.1 | |
| K.Mitchell31% | 4 | 19% | 9 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.McConkey49% | 7 | 26% | 5 | 82 | 1 | +6.8 |
| Q.Johnston78% | 6 | 22% | 2 | 17 | -1.1 | |
| T.Harris75% | 6 | 22% | 3 | 20 | -3.4 | |
| D.Njoku55% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 58 | -0.3 | |
| O.II18% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 32 | +0.3 | |
| D.Davis18% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -2.4 |
Defense T.Dye 0.5 sacks, D.Henley 0.5 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Chargers give up 52 yards a game to tight ends (16th), against a league average of 55. Cardinals' tight ends produce 91 (2nd).
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.21 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Cardinals score a touchdown on 50% of red zone trips (30th). Chargers allow 52% (10th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Cardinals gain 4.9 yards per play (27th). Chargers give up 5.6 (20th), with the league at 5.4.
The Chargers lead the series 5–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). The Cardinals have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | ARI 26 at LAC 14 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | LAC 15 at ARI 17 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 | LAC 25 at ARI 24 |
| 2018 · Wk 12 | ARI 10 at LAC 45 |
| 2014 · Wk 1 | LAC 17 at ARI 18 |
2026 records
| Cardinals | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 0–7 |
| Division | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| Conference | 2–4 | 0–4 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Home | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Away | 3–2 | 0–4 |
| Last 5 | LLWLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 21.9 – 29.8 | 14.1 – 25.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#19 | -0.04#9 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 44%#13 | 44%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#27 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#31 | 10%#17 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#21 | -0.02#11 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#13 | -0.06#23 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#14 | 4.3#21 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#16 | 31%#3 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#30 | 52%#10 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 123#26 | 133#12 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 91#2 | 52#16 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 13.5#2 | 6.0#3 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#23 | 22#7 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.