2026
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Bears offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Bears, 7 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 59–37; their low point was 38% at Q1 9:49. The game turned for good at Q1 8:19: D.Swift right tackle to CAR 13 for 32 yards (W.Lee) (45% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 7:07, 16 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:07CHIT.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22 Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-K.Davis at CAR 28.54% → 70%
- 2Q2 3:41CARB.Young pass deep right to J.Brooks to CHI 26 for 48 yards (J.Johnson).30% → 42%
- 3Q2 0:32CHIC.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 80%
- 4Q2 12:49CARB.Young pass deep left to J.Coker for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10% → 21%
- 5Q1 3:01CHIC.Williams pass deep right to R.Odunze pushed ob at CAR 6 for 47 yards (W.Lee). CAR-B.Brown was injured during the play.62% → 72%
- ★Q1 8:19CHID.Swift right tackle to CAR 13 for 32 yards (W.Lee).turning point45% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Williams led the Bears at +22.0 EPA (21 of 29 for 269). B.Young led the Panthers at +17.2 EPA (23 of 37 for 361).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 21/29 | 269 | 2 | 2 | +18.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift57% | 18 | 46% | 124 | 3 | +9.2 |
| C.Williams100% | 10 | 26% | 65 | 2 | +3.4 |
| K.Monangai43% | 10 | 26% | 100 | 1 | +2.5 |
| L.III73% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Raymond60% | 9 | 35% | 8 | 84 | +6.5 | |
| L.III73% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 63 | +1.5 | |
| C.Kmet57% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 35 | 1 | +3.6 |
| R.Odunze48% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 52 | +4.0 | |
| C.Loveland87% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| K.Monangai43% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 24 | +1.5 | |
| D.Swift57% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +0.7 | |
| J.Walker45% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1.4 |
Defense M.Muhammad 1 INT, K.Street 1 sack, M.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/1 FG (long 40)
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young90% | 23/37 | 361 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +15.5 |
| K.Pickett10% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard71% | 10 | 45% | 49 | 1 | +1.5 |
| A.Dillon10% | 5 | 23% | 28 | -2.0 | |
| J.Brooks19% | 4 | 18% | 14 | -1.6 | |
| B.Young90% | 2 | 9% | 10 | 1 | +1.7 |
| K.Pickett10% | 1 | 5% | 24 | +1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Coker84% | 9 | 26% | 8 | 138 | 2 | +12.5 |
| T.McMillan82% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 75 | -2.5 | |
| T.Tremble56% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 25 | +0.5 | |
| C.Hubbard71% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 38 | 1 | +4.3 |
| D.Waller35% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 28 | +1.2 | |
| X.Legette53% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| J.Brooks19% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 48 | +1.6 | |
| M.Evans40% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 9 | 0.0 | |
| J.Jr.21% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense J.Phillips 1 sack, P.Umanmielen 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/1 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Bears
Bears convert 44% of third downs (7th). Panthers allow 47% (28th).
Short middle is open
Panthers are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.29 EPA per attempt. Bears send 24% of their throws there.
Tight ends go quiet
Panthers give up 47 yards a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 55. Bears' tight ends produce 54 (18th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Bears create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (10th). Panthers give them up at 8% (5th).
The Bears lead the series 9–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 5. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | CHI 59 at CAR 37 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | CAR 10 at CHI 36 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | CAR 13 at CHI 16 |
| 2020 · Wk 6 | CHI 23 at CAR 16 |
| 2017 · Wk 7 | CAR 3 at CHI 17 |
2026 records
| Bears | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Division | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–1 |
| Home | 3–1 | 1–2 |
| Away | 3–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LWWLL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 26.8 – 20.0 | 25.4 – 27.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#8 | +0.03#20 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 47%#8 | 44%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#15 | 5.4#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#10 | 8%#5 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.11#12 | +0.02#16 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#17 | 4%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#11 | -0.01#28 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#11 | 4.6#27 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#7 | 47%#28 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#18 | 80%#30 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 166#8 | 146#17 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 54#18 | 47#12 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 7.6#15 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#11 | 27#9 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.