DOWN X DOWN › week 1 › Bears at Panthers
Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium

CARvsCHI

Panthers offensevsBears defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Panthers, 8 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

CHI offenseCAR offense
How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · CHI 59 · CAR 37

The Bears won 59–37; their low point was 38% at Q1 9:49. The game turned for good at Q1 8:19: D.Swift right tackle to CAR 13 for 32 yards (W.Lee) (45% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 7:07, 16 points for the Bears.

At kickoffCHI 61%CHI by 3 on the line
CHI low point38%Q1 9:49 · down 7⁠–⁠0
Swings past 50%2times the favorite changed
Biggest swing16 ptsCHI · Q2 7:07
CAR wins50%CHI wins
Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 7:07CHIT.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22 Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-K.Davis at CAR 28.54% → 70%+16 CHI
  2. 2Q2 3:41CARB.Young pass deep right to J.Brooks to CHI 26 for 48 yards (J.Johnson).30% → 42%+12 CAR
  3. 3Q2 0:32CHIC.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 80%+11 CHI
  4. 4Q2 12:49CARB.Young pass deep left to J.Coker for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10% → 21%+11 CAR
  5. 5Q1 3:01CHIC.Williams pass deep right to R.Odunze pushed ob at CAR 6 for 47 yards (W.Lee). CAR-B.Brown was injured during the play.62% → 72%+11 CHI
  6. ★Q1 8:19CHID.Swift right tackle to CAR 13 for 32 yards (W.Lee).turning point45% → 51%+6 CHI

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 1

C.Williams led the Bears at +22.0 EPA (21 of 29 for 269). B.Young led the Panthers at +17.2 EPA (23 of 37 for 361).

CHI Bears

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
C.Williams100%21/2926922+18.6
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
D.Swift57%1846%1243+9.2
C.Williams100%1026%652+3.4
K.Monangai43%1026%1001+2.5
L.III73%13%2-0.4
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
K.Raymond60%935%884+6.5
L.III73%519%563+1.5
C.Kmet57%312%2351+3.6
R.Odunze48%312%252+4.0
C.Loveland87%28%00-1.0
K.Monangai43%28%224+1.5
D.Swift57%14%110+0.7
J.Walker45%14%111+1.4

Defense M.Muhammad 1 INT, K.Street 1 sack, M.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/1 FG, 8/8 XP, 11 pts

CAR Panthers

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
B.Young90%23/37361312+15.5
K.Pickett10%0/10-0.4
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
C.Hubbard71%1045%491+1.5
A.Dillon10%523%28-2.0
J.Brooks19%418%14-1.6
B.Young90%29%101+1.7
K.Pickett10%15%24+1.7
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
J.Coker84%926%81382+12.5
T.McMillan82%824%575-2.5
T.Tremble56%515%325+0.5
C.Hubbard71%39%3381+4.3
D.Waller35%26%228+1.2
X.Legette53%26%00-1.0
J.Brooks19%26%148+1.6
M.Evans40%26%190.0
J.Jr.21%13%00-0.4

Defense J.Phillips 1 sack, P.Umanmielen 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/1 FG, 4/5 XP, 7 pts

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Wideouts feast

Bears give up 150 yards a game to wide receivers (19th), against a league average of 147. Panthers' wide receivers produce 181 (5th).

02
Opportunity

Deep left is open

Bears are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.65 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Pressure problem

Panthers take a sack on 8% of dropbacks (22nd). Bears get home on 9% (2nd). League average is 7%.

04
Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Panthers average +0.04 EPA per play (12th). Bears allow -0.03 (12th). League average is +0.00.

The series · Bears and Panthers since 1999, and this season's records13 meetings

The Bears lead the series 9–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 5. This game is the latest meeting.

Bears at home6–1the Bears' record
In Carolina3–3the Bears' record
Most pointsBears 59 · Panthers 372026 · 2026
Biggest winBears by 26 · Panthers by 102024 · 2002
Playoffs0–1the Bears' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 1CHI 59 at CAR 37
2024 · Wk 5CAR 10 at CHI 36
2023 · Wk 10CAR 13 at CHI 16
2020 · Wk 6CHI 23 at CAR 16
2017 · Wk 7CAR 3 at CHI 17

2026 records

BearsPanthers
Overall6–23–4
Division0–21–1
Conference4–23–3
Other conference2–00–1
Home3–11–2
Away3–12–2
Last 5WLWWWLWWLL
StreakWon 3Lost 2
Points a game26.8 – 20.025.4 – 27.6

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · CAR offense against CHI defense
StatCAR CAR offFavors CAR · Favors CHICHI CHI def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
+0.04#12
-0.03#12+0.00
Success rate
42%#16
40%#444%
Yards per play
5.6#12
6.1#295.4
Explosive play rate
9%#17
10%#249%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
+0.05#16
-0.03#10+0.03
Sack rate
8%#22
9%#27%
Running
Run EPA per carry
-0.04#12
-0.09#12-0.08
Yards per carry
4.1#16
4.1#194.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion
40%#18
24%#141%
Red zone TD rate
67%#12
60%#1361%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
181#5
150#19147
TE yards per game
70#4
52#1455
TE targets per game
8.7#8
6.4#77.6
RB receiving yards per game
30#17
33#1832
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Panthers: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.306% of throws
+0.654% of throws
+1.196% of throws
Short
-0.1234% of throws
+0.6220% of throws
0.0030% of throws

Bears: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.6519 throws
+1.408 throws
+0.4815 throws
Short
-0.0770 throws
-0.0241 throws
+0.0574 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.