2026
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Buccaneers, 7 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 33–27; their low point was 48% at Q1 7:49. The game turned for good at Q1 7:49: R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to TB 19 T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 13 yards (S.Bozeman) (48% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 6:29, 17 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:29TBB.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter). FUMBLES (M.Murphy) [B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by…53% → 69%
- 2Q3 2:24CINJ.Burrow pass short right intended for A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by J.Trotter [V.Vea] at CIN 38. J.Trotter for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.5% → 17%
- 3Q2 12:15TBB.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to CIN 4 for 8 yards (B.Carter). FUMBLES (B.Carter), RECOVERED by CIN-B.Cook at CIN -3. Touchback.82% → 91%
- 4Q1 12:50TBT.Johnson right end to CIN 36 for -4 yards (J.Davis).51% → 58%
- 5Q3 1:37CINJ.Burrow pass deep left to M.Gesicki to CIN 46 for 24 yards (A.Winfield).80% → 86%
- ★Q1 7:49CINR.Rehkow punts 51 yards to TB 19 T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 13 yards (S.Bozeman).turning point48% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
E.Egbuka led the Buccaneers at +4.8 EPA (5 catches for 63). M.Gesicki led the Bengals at +6.9 EPA (5 catches for 78).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 23/28 | 216 | 4 | -5.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving61% | 8 | 40% | 45 | 1 | +3.6 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 5 | 25% | 30 | 1 | -2.6 |
| K.Gainwell46% | 5 | 25% | 15 | -1.1 | |
| C.Jr.86% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.1 | |
| T.Johnson23% | 1 | 5% | -4 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving61% | 7 | 26% | 7 | 48 | -0.3 | |
| E.Egbuka86% | 6 | 22% | 5 | 63 | +4.8 | |
| C.Otton98% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 26 | -0.1 | |
| C.Jr.86% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 40 | +2.9 | |
| T.III75% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 36 | +2.3 | |
| K.Gainwell46% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3 | -0.4 | |
| T.Johnson23% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense J.Trotter 1 sack and 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG, 3/3 XP, 9 pts
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 25/35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown72% | 16 | 59% | 56 | 1 | -1.1 |
| S.Perine28% | 5 | 19% | 20 | -0.6 | |
| J.Burrow100% | 5 | 19% | 20 | +0.5 | |
| D.Meyers16% | 1 | 4% | 10 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Gesicki33% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 78 | 1 | +6.9 |
| T.Higgins72% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 59 | +2.3 | |
| C.Brown72% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 22 | -1.1 | |
| J.Chase94% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 12 | -2.5 | |
| S.Perine28% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 30 | +3.1 | |
| D.Sample66% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 19 | +0.9 | |
| A.Iosivas61% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 12 | -8.4 | |
| T.Hudson9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 | |
| D.Meyers16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 18 | +1.0 |
Defense J.Allen 1 sack, B.Mafe 1 sack, K.Jenkins 1 sack, M.Murphy 0.5 sacks · Kicking E.McPherson 4/4 FG, 3/3 XP, 15 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Buccaneers average 5.0 yards per carry (3rd). Bengals allow 4.4 (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Bengals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.84 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Buccaneers take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (30th). Bengals get home on 9% (3rd). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Buccaneers gain 4.9 yards per play (25th). Bengals give up 5.8 (25th), with the league at 5.4.
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). The Bengals have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | TB 27 at CIN 33 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | CIN 34 at TB 23 |
| 2018 · Wk 8 | TB 34 at CIN 37 |
| 2014 · Wk 13 | CIN 14 at TB 13 |
| 2010 · Wk 5 | TB 24 at CIN 21 |
2026 records
| Buccaneers | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 5–2 |
| Division | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 1–0 |
| Home | 1–4 | 2–1 |
| Away | 2–1 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | LWLWW | LLWWW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 18.9 | 29.4 – 22.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#26 | -0.01#15 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#25 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#25 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 11%#29 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.23#31 | -0.01#12 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#30 | 9%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.01#8 | -0.08#18 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.0#3 | 4.4#23 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#14 | 48%#29 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#26 | 42%#3 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 104#31 | 142#15 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 27#32 | 89#31 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.1#32 | 9.6#30 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#29 | 30#12 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.