2026
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bengals, 8 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 33–27; their low point was 48% at Q1 7:49. The game turned for good at Q1 7:49: R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to TB 19 T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 13 yards (S.Bozeman) (48% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 6:29, 17 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:29CINB.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter). FUMBLES (M.Murphy) [B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by…53% → 69%
- 2Q3 2:24TBJ.Burrow pass short right intended for A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by J.Trotter [V.Vea] at CIN 38. J.Trotter for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.5% → 17%
- 3Q2 12:15CINB.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to CIN 4 for 8 yards (B.Carter). FUMBLES (B.Carter), RECOVERED by CIN-B.Cook at CIN -3. Touchback.82% → 91%
- 4Q1 12:50CINT.Johnson right end to CIN 36 for -4 yards (J.Davis).51% → 58%
- 5Q3 1:37CINJ.Burrow pass deep left to M.Gesicki to CIN 46 for 24 yards (A.Winfield).80% → 86%
- ★Q1 7:49CINR.Rehkow punts 51 yards to TB 19 T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 13 yards (S.Bozeman).turning point48% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
E.Egbuka led the Buccaneers at +4.8 EPA (5 catches for 63). M.Gesicki led the Bengals at +6.9 EPA (5 catches for 78).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 23/28 | 216 | 4 | -5.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving61% | 8 | 40% | 45 | 1 | +3.6 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 5 | 25% | 30 | 1 | -2.6 |
| K.Gainwell46% | 5 | 25% | 15 | -1.1 | |
| C.Jr.86% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.1 | |
| T.Johnson23% | 1 | 5% | -4 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving61% | 7 | 26% | 7 | 48 | -0.3 | |
| E.Egbuka86% | 6 | 22% | 5 | 63 | +4.8 | |
| C.Otton98% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 26 | -0.1 | |
| C.Jr.86% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 40 | +2.9 | |
| T.III75% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 36 | +2.3 | |
| K.Gainwell46% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3 | -0.4 | |
| T.Johnson23% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense J.Trotter 1 sack and 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG (long 51)
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 25/35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown72% | 16 | 59% | 56 | 1 | -1.1 |
| S.Perine28% | 5 | 19% | 20 | -0.6 | |
| J.Burrow100% | 5 | 19% | 20 | +0.5 | |
| D.Meyers16% | 1 | 4% | 10 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Gesicki33% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 78 | 1 | +6.9 |
| T.Higgins72% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 59 | +2.3 | |
| C.Brown72% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 22 | -1.1 | |
| J.Chase94% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 12 | -2.5 | |
| S.Perine28% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 30 | +3.1 | |
| D.Sample66% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 19 | +0.9 | |
| A.Iosivas61% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 12 | -8.4 | |
| T.Hudson9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 | |
| D.Meyers16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 18 | +1.0 |
Defense J.Allen 1 sack, B.Mafe 1 sack, K.Jenkins 1 sack, M.Murphy 0.5 sacks · Kicking E.McPherson 4/4 FG (long 58)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Bengals take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (8th). Buccaneers get home on 6% (24th). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Bengals average 3.7 yards per carry (26th). Buccaneers allow 3.6 (8th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bengals average +0.12 EPA per play (5th). Buccaneers allow -0.16 (2nd). League average is +0.00.
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). The Bengals have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | TB 27 at CIN 33 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | CIN 34 at TB 23 |
| 2018 · Wk 8 | TB 34 at CIN 37 |
| 2014 · Wk 13 | CIN 14 at TB 13 |
| 2010 · Wk 5 | TB 24 at CIN 21 |
2026 records
| Buccaneers | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 5–2 |
| Division | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 1–0 |
| Home | 1–4 | 2–1 |
| Away | 2–1 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | LWLWW | LLWWW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 18.9 | 29.4 – 22.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#5 | -0.16#2 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 50%#2 | 39%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#6 | 5.1#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 7%#4 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#5 | -0.20#2 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.13#22 | -0.15#6 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#26 | 3.6#8 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 55%#1 | 34%#7 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#9 | 50%#9 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 211#1 | 131#10 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 54#17 | 56#20 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.0#21 | 8.1#23 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#10 | 33#18 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.