2026
Week 3 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Falcons offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Falcons, 8 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 35–14 from as low as 16% (Q1 3:10, down 7–0). The Packers had been 68% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 3:47: T.Smack 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (Z.Harrison) (44% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 10:02, 12 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:02ATLJ.Love pass incomplete short right to C.Watson.64% → 75%
- 2Q1 13:33GBM.Penix pass short middle intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by X.McKinney at GB 40. X.McKinney to GB 45 for 5 yards (D.London).64% → 75%
- 3Q2 1:02ATLM.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.67% → 77%
- 4Q2 3:47ATLT.Smack 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (Z.Harrison)turning point44% → 52%
- 5Q1 9:18GBJ.Love pass deep right to M.Golden to ATL 43 for 45 yards (M.Hughes).64% → 72%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.London led the Falcons at +12.3 EPA (9 catches for 194). M.Golden led the Packers at +4.6 EPA (5 catches for 100).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 18/25 | 256 | 1 | 1 | +9.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson72% | 29 | 71% | 194 | 2 | +8.7 |
| B.Robinson27% | 10 | 24% | 50 | 1 | +3.4 |
| M.Jr.100% | 2 | 5% | -2 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London93% | 10 | 43% | 9 | 194 | +12.3 | |
| J.Dotson66% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 11 | -4.6 | |
| A.Hooper23% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 11 | 1 | +4.2 |
| O.Zaccheaus34% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 9 | -0.9 | |
| K.Pitts59% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 5 | -0.5 | |
| B.Robinson72% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 19 | +1.3 | |
| Z.Branch18% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 7 | -0.9 |
Defense X.Watts 1 INT, C.Thomas 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 44)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 28/53 | 312 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Lloyd23% | 4 | 44% | 11 | -0.6 | |
| K.Johnson36% | 4 | 44% | 6 | -1.8 | |
| J.Love100% | 1 | 11% | 0 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Golden82% | 12 | 24% | 5 | 100 | 1 | +4.6 |
| C.Watson80% | 10 | 20% | 7 | 96 | 1 | +2.0 |
| T.Kraft76% | 8 | 16% | 4 | 26 | -2.0 | |
| S.Moore52% | 7 | 14% | 3 | 31 | +2.8 | |
| J.Smith33% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 16 | -3.6 | |
| M.Lloyd23% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 7 | -0.3 | |
| K.Johnson36% | 3 | 6% | 1 | 10 | -0.5 | |
| J.Sturdivant32% | 3 | 6% | 3 | 22 | +3.2 | |
| B.Melton32% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| C.Brooks41% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 |
Defense X.McKinney 1 INT · Kicking T.Smack 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Falcons average 4.7 yards per carry (5th). Packers allow 3.9 (14th).
Deep left is open
Packers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.61 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Falcons gain -0.18 EPA per dropback (29th). Packers allow -0.06 (5th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Falcons succeed on 43% of plays (15th) against a defense that allows 44% (15th).
The Falcons lead the series 9–8 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | ATL 35 at GB 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 2 | GB 24 at ATL 25 |
| 2020 · Wk 4 | ATL 16 at GB 30 |
| 2018 · Wk 14 | ATL 20 at GB 34 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | GB 23 at ATL 34 |
2026 records
| Falcons | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Division | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 1–0 |
| Home | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 23.6 | 21.4 – 20.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#29 | -0.07#7 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 43%#15 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#13 | 4.8#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 6%#3 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.18#29 | -0.06#5 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#9 | -0.10#11 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 3.9#14 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#29 | 44%#23 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#14 | 60%#13 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#21 | 152#22 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#26 | 35#3 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#25 | 6.1#4 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#19 | 34#19 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.