DOWN X DOWN › week 3 › Falcons at Packers

Updated Nov 3, 7:02 AM ET

2026

Week 3 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field

Packers offensevsFalcons defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Packers, 8 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

ATL offense GB offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · ATL 35 · GB 14

The Falcons won 35–14 from as low as 16% (Q1 3:10, down 7⁠–⁠0). The Packers had been 68% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 3:47: T.Smack 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (Z.Harrison) (44% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 10:02, 12 points for the Falcons.

At kickoffGB 68%GB by 4.5 on the line

ATL low point16%Q1 3:10 · down 7⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%1times the favorite changed

Biggest swing12 ptsATL · Q3 10:02

GB wins50%ATL wins

12345Turning pointATL low 16%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q3 10:02ATLJ.Love pass incomplete short right to C.Watson.64% → 75%+12
2Q1 13:33GBM.Penix pass short middle intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by X.McKinney at GB 40. X.McKinney to GB 45 for 5 yards (D.London).64% → 75%+11
3Q2 1:02ATLM.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.67% → 77%+10
4Q2 3:47ATLT.Smack 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (Z.Harrison)turning point44% → 52%+9
5Q1 9:18GBJ.Love pass deep right to M.Golden to ATL 43 for 45 yards (M.Hughes).64% → 72%+8

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 3

D.London led the Falcons at +12.3 EPA (9 catches for 194). M.Golden led the Packers at +4.6 EPA (5 catches for 100).

Falcons

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
M.Jr.100%	18/25	256	1	1		+9.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
B.Robinson72%	29	71%	194	2	+8.7
B.Robinson27%	10	24%	50	1	+3.4
M.Jr.100%	2	5%	-2		0.0

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
D.London93%	10	43%	9	194		+12.3
J.Dotson66%	3	13%	1	11		-4.6
A.Hooper23%	2	9%	2	11	1	+4.2
O.Zaccheaus34%	2	9%	2	9		-0.9
K.Pitts59%	2	9%	1	5		-0.5
B.Robinson72%	2	9%	2	19		+1.3
Z.Branch18%	2	9%	1	7		-0.9

Defense X.Watts 1 INT, C.Thomas 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 44)

Packers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Love100%	28/53	312	2	1	1	+3.6

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
M.Lloyd23%	4	44%	11	-0.6
K.Johnson36%	4	44%	6	-1.8
J.Love100%	1	11%	0	-0.4

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
M.Golden82%	12	24%	5	100	1	+4.6
C.Watson80%	10	20%	7	96	1	+2.0
T.Kraft76%	8	16%	4	26		-2.0
S.Moore52%	7	14%	3	31		+2.8
J.Smith33%	3	6%	2	16		-3.6
M.Lloyd23%	3	6%	2	7		-0.3
K.Johnson36%	3	6%	1	10		-0.5
J.Sturdivant32%	3	6%	3	22		+3.2
B.Melton32%	1	2%	0	0		-0.3
C.Brooks41%	1	2%	1	4		-0.1

Defense X.McKinney 1 INT · Kicking T.Smack 0/1 FG

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Wideouts feast

Falcons give up 150 yards a game to wide receivers (20th), against a league average of 147. Packers' wide receivers produce 193 (3rd).

Opportunity

Deep left is open

Falcons are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.17 EPA per attempt. Packers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Nowhere to run

Packers' run game is 32nd in EPA per carry (-0.24). Falcons allow -0.08 (15th).

Wash

Yards per play

Call this one even. Packers gain 5.5 yards per play (16th). Falcons give up 5.3 (13th), with the league at 5.4.

The series · Falcons and Packers since 1999, and this season's records17 meetings

The Falcons lead the series 9–8 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.

Falcons at home5–3the Falcons' record

In Green Bay4–5the Falcons' record

Most pointsFalcons 44 · Packers 482016 · 2010

Biggest winFalcons by 23 · Packers by 272016 · 2010

Playoffs2–1the Falcons' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 3	ATL 35 at GB 14
2023 · Wk 2	GB 24 at ATL 25
2020 · Wk 4	ATL 16 at GB 30
2018 · Wk 14	ATL 20 at GB 34
2017 · Wk 2	GB 23 at ATL 34

2026 records

	Falcons	Packers
Overall	3–5	5–3
Division	1–2	1–2
Conference	3–3	4–3
Other conference	0–2	1–0
Home	1–3	3–1
Away	2–2	2–2
Last 5	WLLWL	WWWLW
Streak	Lost 1	Won 1
Points a game	21.4 – 23.6	21.4 – 20.5

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · GB offense against ATL defense

Stat	GB off	ATL def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.00#17	-0.04#11	+0.00
Success rate	40%#27	44%#18	44%
Yards per play	5.5#16	5.3#13	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#19	9%#13	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.12#11	+0.00#15	+0.03
Sack rate	4%#7	6%#20	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.24#32	-0.08#15	-0.08
Yards per carry	3.1#32	4.6#26	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	39%#23	42%#18	41%
Red zone TD rate	54%#23	63%#18	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	193#3	150#20	147
TE yards per game	59#15	55#18	55
TE targets per game	7.5#16	7.6#16	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	28#20	33#17	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Packers: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.357% of throws

+1.607% of throws

+0.098% of throws

Short

+0.0925% of throws

+0.2120% of throws

-0.0433% of throws

Falcons: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.1727 throws

+1.598 throws

-0.0521 throws