2026
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
vs
Chargers offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Chargers, 7 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 24–16; their low point was 31% at Q2 11:53. The game turned for good at Q4 11:15: J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,… (44% → 63%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:15BUFJ.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…turning point44% → 63%
- 2Q4 13:38BUFJ.Herbert pass deep middle intended for M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards…34% → 52%
- 3Q3 9:31LACJ.Herbert pass deep left to L.McConkey ran ob at BUF 6 for 19 yards [B.Chubb].40% → 52%
- 4Q4 15:00LACJ.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (K.Mack). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.…54% → 67%
- 5Q1 2:51LACJ.Herbert pass short right to Q.Johnston to BUF 35 for 6 yards (C.Bishop). PENALTY on BUF-G.Rousseau, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at…53% → 64%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
L.McConkey led the Chargers at +5.0 EPA (4 catches for 66). T.Johnson led the Bills at +5.8 EPA (0 carries for 0).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 20/34 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton42% | 15 | 54% | 56 | -0.4 | |
| K.Mitchell38% | 8 | 29% | 52 | 0.0 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 4 | 14% | 17 | +1.6 | |
| K.Vidal25% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Harris58% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 76 | +3.0 | |
| Q.Johnston87% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 40 | +0.4 | |
| L.McConkey88% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 66 | +5.0 | |
| A.Ingold45% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 35 | +1.1 | |
| K.Mitchell38% | 3 | 9% | 3 | -5 | 1 | -0.8 |
| K.Vidal25% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 14 | -2.0 | |
| O.II57% | 3 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -3.3 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling4% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -5.8 | |
| O.Hampton42% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense G.Smith 2 INT, T.Tuipulotu 1.5 sacks, K.Mack 1 sack, A.Mesidor 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 3/4 FG (long 33)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 16/26 | 204 | 2 | 4 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook67% | 24 | 73% | 154 | 1 | +0.5 |
| J.Allen100% | 8 | 24% | 22 | 2 | +3.4 |
| D.Knox70% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Moore64% | 10 | 38% | 6 | 67 | -1.4 | |
| T.Johnson23% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 50 | +5.8 | |
| K.Shakir73% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 6 | -0.1 | |
| D.Kincaid67% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 38 | -1.7 | |
| K.Coleman48% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 37 | +3.1 | |
| J.Allen100% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 | |
| D.Knox70% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 | |
| J.Cook67% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| J.Hawes38% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense G.Rousseau 2 sacks, C.Gardner-Johnson 1 INT · Kicking T.Bass 1/1 FG (long 28)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Bills give up 44 yards a game to running backs (29th), against a league average of 32. Chargers' running backs produce 31 (15th).
Deep right is open
Bills are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.64 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Chargers average 3.7 yards per carry (23rd). Bills allow 3.6 (9th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Chargers create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (25th). Bills give them up at 10% (23rd).
The Chargers lead the series 7–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Bills have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | LAC 16 at BUF 24 |
| 2023 · Wk 16 | BUF 24 at LAC 22 |
| 2020 · Wk 12 | LAC 17 at BUF 27 |
| 2018 · Wk 2 | LAC 31 at BUF 20 |
| 2017 · Wk 11 | BUF 24 at LAC 54 |
2026 records
| Chargers | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0–7 | 6–1 |
| Division | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Conference | 0–4 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 2–0 |
| Home | 0–3 | 3–1 |
| Away | 0–4 | 3–0 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 14.1 – 25.0 | 33.3 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.26#32 | +0.06#23 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 35%#32 | 46%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.7#30 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 10%#23 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.30#32 | +0.12#24 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 5%#26 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.23#31 | -0.08#17 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#23 | 3.6#9 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#27 | 42%#21 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#29 | 68%#23 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 122#27 | 154#24 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 47#22 | 71#29 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#17 | 9.1#29 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#15 | 44#29 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.