2026
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
vs
Bills offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 7 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 24–16; their low point was 31% at Q2 11:53. The game turned for good at Q4 11:15: J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,… (44% → 63%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:15BUFJ.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…turning point44% → 63%
- 2Q4 13:38BUFJ.Herbert pass deep middle intended for M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards…34% → 52%
- 3Q3 9:31LACJ.Herbert pass deep left to L.McConkey ran ob at BUF 6 for 19 yards [B.Chubb].40% → 52%
- 4Q4 15:00LACJ.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (K.Mack). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.…54% → 67%
- 5Q1 2:51LACJ.Herbert pass short right to Q.Johnston to BUF 35 for 6 yards (C.Bishop). PENALTY on BUF-G.Rousseau, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at…53% → 64%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
L.McConkey led the Chargers at +5.0 EPA (4 catches for 66). T.Johnson led the Bills at +5.8 EPA (0 carries for 0).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 20/34 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton42% | 15 | 54% | 56 | -0.4 | |
| K.Mitchell38% | 8 | 29% | 52 | 0.0 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 4 | 14% | 17 | +1.6 | |
| K.Vidal25% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Harris58% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 76 | +3.0 | |
| Q.Johnston87% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 40 | +0.4 | |
| L.McConkey88% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 66 | +5.0 | |
| A.Ingold45% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 35 | +1.1 | |
| K.Mitchell38% | 3 | 9% | 3 | -5 | 1 | -0.8 |
| K.Vidal25% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 14 | -2.0 | |
| O.II57% | 3 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -3.3 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling4% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -5.8 | |
| O.Hampton42% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense G.Smith 2 INT, T.Tuipulotu 1.5 sacks, K.Mack 1 sack, A.Mesidor 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 3/4 FG (long 33)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 16/26 | 204 | 2 | 4 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook67% | 24 | 73% | 154 | 1 | +0.5 |
| J.Allen100% | 8 | 24% | 22 | 2 | +3.4 |
| D.Knox70% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -1.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Moore64% | 10 | 38% | 6 | 67 | -1.4 | |
| T.Johnson23% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 50 | +5.8 | |
| K.Shakir73% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 6 | -0.1 | |
| D.Kincaid67% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 38 | -1.7 | |
| K.Coleman48% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 37 | +3.1 | |
| J.Allen100% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 | |
| D.Knox70% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 | |
| J.Cook67% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| J.Hawes38% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense G.Rousseau 2 sacks, C.Gardner-Johnson 1 INT · Kicking T.Bass 1/1 FG (long 28)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Bills' run game is 6th in EPA per carry (+0.02). Chargers allow -0.06 (23rd).
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.21 EPA per attempt. Bills send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Chargers give up 6.0 targets a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 7.6. Bills' tight ends produce 7.1 (19th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bills average +0.18 EPA per play (1st). Chargers allow -0.04 (9th). League average is +0.00.
The Chargers lead the series 7–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Bills have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | LAC 16 at BUF 24 |
| 2023 · Wk 16 | BUF 24 at LAC 22 |
| 2020 · Wk 12 | LAC 17 at BUF 27 |
| 2018 · Wk 2 | LAC 31 at BUF 20 |
| 2017 · Wk 11 | BUF 24 at LAC 54 |
2026 records
| Chargers | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0–7 | 6–1 |
| Division | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Conference | 0–4 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 2–0 |
| Home | 0–3 | 3–1 |
| Away | 0–4 | 3–0 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 14.1 – 25.0 | 33.3 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.18#1 | -0.04#9 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#4 | 44%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.5#2 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 15%#1 | 10%#17 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#4 | -0.02#10 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#6 | -0.06#23 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#7 | 4.3#21 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#6 | 31%#3 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 72%#3 | 52%#10 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 145#17 | 133#12 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 64#9 | 52#15 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.1#19 | 6.0#3 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 46#7 | 22#7 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.