DOWN X DOWN › week 5 › Bears at Packers
Updated Nov 3, 7:02 AM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field

CHIvsGB

Bears offensevsPackers defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Bears, 8 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

CHI offenseGB offense
How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · CHI 7 · GB 31

The Packers won 31–7; their low point was 39% at Q1 14:06. The Bears had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 6:37: Direct snap to T.Kraft. T.Kraft up the middle to CHI 42 for 2 yards (J.Lynch; K.Street) (50% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 13:19, 16 points for the Packers.

At kickoffCHI 57%CHI by 1.5 on the line
GB low point39%Q1 14:06 · tied 0⁠–⁠0
Swings past 50%1times the favorite changed
Biggest swing16 ptsGB · Q3 13:19
GB wins50%CHI wins
Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 13:19GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 84%+16
  2. 2Q1 5:57GBJ.Love pass deep left to C.Watson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 62%+10
  3. 3Q2 1:36GBD.Whelan punts 75 yards to end zone, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-M.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.61% → 70%+9
  4. 4Q1 5:39GBT.Bagent pass deep right intended for L.Burden INTERCEPTED by X.McKinney (J.Bullard) at CHI 45. X.McKinney to CHI 45 for no gain (L.Burden).64% → 72%+9
  5. 5Q1 13:28GBT.Bagent sacked at CHI 33 for -11 yards (D.Wyatt).40% → 48%+8
  6. ★Q1 6:37GBDirect snap to T.Kraft. T.Kraft up the middle to CHI 42 for 2 yards (J.Lynch; K.Street).turning point50% → 53%+3

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 5

D.Swift led the Bears at +4.8 EPA (9 carries for 43). J.Love led the Packers at +17.2 EPA (25 of 31 for 367).

CHI Bears

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
T.Bagent67%12/218722-10.3
C.Keenum33%11/1910812-6.4
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
D.Swift58%938%431+4.4
R.Johnson39%521%6-3.7
L.III77%417%2-2.3
T.Bagent67%313%17+1.0
C.Keenum33%14%4-0.3
K.Raymond68%14%-2-0.8
Z.Thomas22%14%11+0.8
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
R.Odunze99%923%340-7.4
R.Johnson39%718%534+0.6
L.III77%615%447-1.7
D.Swift58%513%430+0.5
C.Loveland80%513%219-4.1
K.Raymond68%410%36-1.5
C.Kmet42%25%18+0.9
J.Walker9%13%00-2.7
Z.Thomas22%13%111+0.7

Defense A.Booker 2 sacks · Kicking C.Santos 0/1 FG

GB Packers

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
J.Love97%25/3136722+16.9
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
M.Lloyd44%1038%312+0.3
K.Johnson15%727%26-2.6
P.Strong41%519%7-0.3
T.Taylor3%28%-2-3.0
J.Love97%14%6+0.3
T.Kraft77%14%2+0.5
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
C.Watson80%826%61432+10.3
M.Golden77%723%6123+8.6
T.Kraft77%516%564+3.1
B.Melton49%413%320-1.4
P.Strong41%413%311-1.4
M.Lloyd44%26%16-0.3
S.Moore18%13%10-0.5

Defense X.McKinney 2 INT, D.Wyatt 2 sacks, T.Hopper 1 INT, D.Dennis-Sutton 1 sack · Kicking T.Smack 1/3 FG (long 35)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Third downs favor Bears

Bears convert 44% of third downs (7th). Packers allow 44% (23rd).

02
Opportunity

Deep left is open

Packers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.61 EPA per attempt. Bears send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Packers give up 35 yards a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 55. Bears' tight ends produce 54 (18th).

04
Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Bears average +0.06 EPA per play (8th). Packers allow -0.07 (7th). League average is +0.00.

The series · Bears and Packers since 1999, and this season's records57 meetings

The Packers lead the series 41–16 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.

Bears at home7–22the Bears' record
In Green Bay9–19the Bears' record
Most pointsBears 35 · Packers 552007 · 2014
Biggest winBears by 28 · Packers by 412007 · 2014
Playoffs1–1the Bears' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 5CHI 7 at GB 31
2025 · Wk 19 · playoffsGB 27 at CHI 31
2025 · Wk 16 · OTGB 16 at CHI 22
2025 · Wk 14CHI 21 at GB 28
2024 · Wk 18CHI 24 at GB 22

2026 records

BearsPackers
Overall6–25–3
Division0–21–2
Conference4–24–3
Other conference2–01–0
Home3–13–1
Away3–12–2
Last 5WLWWWWWWLW
StreakWon 3Won 1
Points a game26.8 – 20.021.4 – 20.5

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · CHI offense against GB defense
StatCHI CHI offFavors CHI · Favors GBGB GB def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
+0.06#8
-0.07#7+0.00
Success rate
47%#8
44%#1544%
Yards per play
5.5#15
4.8#35.4
Explosive play rate
10%#10
6%#39%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
+0.11#12
-0.06#5+0.03
Sack rate
6%#17
7%#127%
Running
Run EPA per carry
-0.02#11
-0.10#11-0.08
Yards per carry
4.3#11
3.9#144.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion
44%#7
44%#2341%
Red zone TD rate
59%#18
60%#1461%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
166#8
152#22147
TE yards per game
54#18
35#255
TE targets per game
8.8#6
6.1#47.6
RB receiving yards per game
34#11
34#2032
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Bears: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+1.015% of throws
+0.215% of throws
-0.088% of throws
Short
+0.0924% of throws
+0.4024% of throws
+0.1434% of throws

Packers: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.6117 throws
+0.3710 throws
-0.4315 throws
Short
-0.0282 throws
+0.0165 throws
+0.0593 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.