2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Packers offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Packers, 7 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 31–7; their low point was 39% at Q1 14:06. The Bears had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 6:37: Direct snap to T.Kraft. T.Kraft up the middle to CHI 42 for 2 yards (J.Lynch; K.Street) (50% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 13:19, 16 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 13:19GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 84%
- 2Q1 5:57GBJ.Love pass deep left to C.Watson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.53% → 62%
- 3Q2 1:36GBD.Whelan punts 75 yards to end zone, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-M.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.61% → 70%
- 4Q1 5:39GBT.Bagent pass deep right intended for L.Burden INTERCEPTED by X.McKinney (J.Bullard) at CHI 45. X.McKinney to CHI 45 for no gain (L.Burden).64% → 72%
- 5Q1 13:28GBT.Bagent sacked at CHI 33 for -11 yards (D.Wyatt).40% → 48%
- ★Q1 6:37GBDirect snap to T.Kraft. T.Kraft up the middle to CHI 42 for 2 yards (J.Lynch; K.Street).turning point50% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Swift led the Bears at +4.8 EPA (9 carries for 43). J.Love led the Packers at +17.2 EPA (25 of 31 for 367).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Bagent67% | 12/21 | 87 | 2 | 2 | -10.3 | |
| C.Keenum33% | 11/19 | 108 | 1 | 2 | -6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift58% | 9 | 38% | 43 | 1 | +4.4 |
| R.Johnson39% | 5 | 21% | 6 | -3.7 | |
| L.III77% | 4 | 17% | 2 | -2.3 | |
| T.Bagent67% | 3 | 13% | 17 | +1.0 | |
| C.Keenum33% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.3 | |
| K.Raymond68% | 1 | 4% | -2 | -0.8 | |
| Z.Thomas22% | 1 | 4% | 11 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze99% | 9 | 23% | 3 | 40 | -7.4 | |
| R.Johnson39% | 7 | 18% | 5 | 34 | +0.6 | |
| L.III77% | 6 | 15% | 4 | 47 | -1.7 | |
| D.Swift58% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 30 | +0.5 | |
| C.Loveland80% | 5 | 13% | 2 | 19 | -4.1 | |
| K.Raymond68% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 6 | -1.5 | |
| C.Kmet42% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.9 | |
| J.Walker9% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -2.7 | |
| Z.Thomas22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.7 |
Defense A.Booker 2 sacks · Kicking C.Santos 0/1 FG
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love97% | 25/31 | 367 | 2 | 2 | +16.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Lloyd44% | 10 | 38% | 31 | 2 | +0.3 |
| K.Johnson15% | 7 | 27% | 26 | -2.6 | |
| P.Strong41% | 5 | 19% | 7 | -0.3 | |
| T.Taylor3% | 2 | 8% | -2 | -3.0 | |
| J.Love97% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.3 | |
| T.Kraft77% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Watson80% | 8 | 26% | 6 | 143 | 2 | +10.3 |
| M.Golden77% | 7 | 23% | 6 | 123 | +8.6 | |
| T.Kraft77% | 5 | 16% | 5 | 64 | +3.1 | |
| B.Melton49% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 20 | -1.4 | |
| P.Strong41% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 11 | -1.4 | |
| M.Lloyd44% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 6 | -0.3 | |
| S.Moore18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense X.McKinney 2 INT, D.Wyatt 2 sacks, T.Hopper 1 INT, D.Dennis-Sutton 1 sack · Kicking T.Smack 1/3 FG (long 35)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Bears give up 149 yards a game to wide receivers (19th), against a league average of 147. Packers' wide receivers produce 193 (3rd).
Deep left is open
Bears are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Packers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Bears
Packers convert 39% of third downs (24th). Bears allow 26% (1st).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Packers average +0.00 EPA per play (17th). Bears allow -0.01 (15th). League average is +0.00.
The Packers lead the series 41–16 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | CHI 7 at GB 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 19 · playoffs | GB 27 at CHI 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 · OT | GB 16 at CHI 22 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | CHI 21 at GB 28 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CHI 24 at GB 22 |
2026 records
| Bears | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 5–3 |
| Division | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 4–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 1–0 |
| Home | 3–1 | 3–1 |
| Away | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 20.4 | 21.4 – 20.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.00#17 | -0.01#15 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 40%#27 | 41%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#16 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 11%#26 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.12#11 | +0.01#15 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#7 | 9%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.24#32 | -0.08#15 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.1#32 | 4.2#19 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#24 | 26%#1 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 54%#23 | 69%#25 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 193#3 | 149#19 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 59#15 | 57#21 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#16 | 6.6#7 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#20 | 35#21 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.