2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bengals, 7 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 31–24 and were favored the whole way, never below 69%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 7:03, 9 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:03MIAJ.Burrow pass short left to C.Brown to MIA 7 for 3 yards (C.Johnson). FUMBLES (C.Johnson), RECOVERED by MIA-C.Robinson at MIA 7. C.Robinson to MIA…8% → 18%
- 2Q1 15:00CINR.Patterson kicks 56 yards from MIA 35 to CIN 9. D.Meyers to MIA 10 for 81 yards (J.Simpson).74% → 83%
- 3Q2 11:56CINJ.Burrow pass short middle to S.Perine for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [C.Robinson].76% → 84%
- 4Q1 12:35MIAO.Gordon right tackle to CIN 18 for 22 yards (B.Carter).14% → 20%
- 5Q1 14:08CINJ.Burrow pass short left to M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.81% → 86%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Burrow led the Bengals at +13.7 EPA (23 of 32 for 190). O.II led the Dolphins at +3.0 EPA (18 carries for 88).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 23/32 | 190 | 4 | +13.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Perine51% | 14 | 45% | 68 | +2.1 | |
| C.Brown60% | 13 | 42% | 39 | -3.2 | |
| J.Burrow100% | 4 | 13% | 10 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase89% | 10 | 32% | 6 | 77 | 1 | +2.3 |
| T.Higgins69% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 22 | +0.4 | |
| C.Brown60% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 21 | -4.6 | |
| T.Hudson29% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 14 | 1 | +2.5 |
| E.All52% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 25 | +2.1 | |
| S.Perine51% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 10 | 1 | +3.1 |
| M.Gesicki45% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1.7 |
| D.Meyers29% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | +1.3 | |
| D.Sample52% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 |
Defense J.Battle 2 INT, J.Allen 1 sack, B.Mafe 1 sack, B.Carter 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 26)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Willis100% | 15/27 | 137 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -11.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.II65% | 18 | 53% | 88 | 1 | +3.0 |
| M.Willis100% | 8 | 24% | 74 | 1 | +4.3 |
| J.Wright14% | 6 | 18% | 11 | -1.5 | |
| M.Washington80% | 1 | 3% | 18 | +1.6 | |
| C.Bell71% | 1 | 3% | 26 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Washington80% | 8 | 31% | 6 | 43 | +0.9 | |
| K.Jr.64% | 7 | 27% | 3 | 30 | 1 | -2.7 |
| G.Dulcich74% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 37 | +1.3 | |
| J.Tolbert23% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 22 | +0.9 | |
| W.Kacmarek38% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| C.Bell71% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking R.Patterson 1/1 FG (long 29)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Bengals
Bengals convert 55% of third downs (1st). Dolphins allow 54% (32nd).
Deep right is open
Dolphins are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.34 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 11% of their throws there.
Ground game stalls
Bengals average 3.7 yards per carry (26th). Dolphins allow 4.1 (18th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Bengals create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (21st). Dolphins give them up at 11% (25th).
The Bengals lead the series 7–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | CIN 31 at MIA 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | CIN 45 at MIA 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | MIA 15 at CIN 27 |
| 2020 · Wk 13 | CIN 7 at MIA 19 |
| 2019 · Wk 16 · OT | CIN 35 at MIA 38 |
2026 records
| Bengals | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 1–6 |
| Division | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 1–4 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 0–2 |
| Home | 2–1 | 0–3 |
| Away | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | LLWWW | LLLWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 29.4 – 22.6 | 16.7 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#5 | +0.13#32 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 50%#2 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#6 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 11%#25 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#5 | +0.30#32 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 4%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.13#22 | -0.07#19 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#26 | 4.1#18 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 55%#1 | 54%#32 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#9 | 64%#18 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 211#1 | 121#4 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 54#17 | 69#28 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.0#21 | 7.9#18 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#10 | 41#25 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.