2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Dolphins, 7 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 31–24 and were favored the whole way, never below 69%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 7:03, 9 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:03MIAJ.Burrow pass short left to C.Brown to MIA 7 for 3 yards (C.Johnson). FUMBLES (C.Johnson), RECOVERED by MIA-C.Robinson at MIA 7. C.Robinson to MIA…8% → 18%
- 2Q1 15:00CINR.Patterson kicks 56 yards from MIA 35 to CIN 9. D.Meyers to MIA 10 for 81 yards (J.Simpson).74% → 83%
- 3Q2 11:56CINJ.Burrow pass short middle to S.Perine for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [C.Robinson].76% → 84%
- 4Q1 12:35MIAO.Gordon right tackle to CIN 18 for 22 yards (B.Carter).14% → 20%
- 5Q1 14:08CINJ.Burrow pass short left to M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.81% → 86%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Burrow led the Bengals at +13.7 EPA (23 of 32 for 190). O.II led the Dolphins at +3.0 EPA (18 carries for 88).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 23/32 | 190 | 4 | +13.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Perine51% | 14 | 45% | 68 | +2.1 | |
| C.Brown60% | 13 | 42% | 39 | -3.2 | |
| J.Burrow100% | 4 | 13% | 10 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase89% | 10 | 32% | 6 | 77 | 1 | +2.3 |
| T.Higgins69% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 22 | +0.4 | |
| C.Brown60% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 21 | -4.6 | |
| T.Hudson29% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 14 | 1 | +2.5 |
| E.All52% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 25 | +2.1 | |
| S.Perine51% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 10 | 1 | +3.1 |
| M.Gesicki45% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1.7 |
| D.Meyers29% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | +1.3 | |
| D.Sample52% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 |
Defense J.Battle 2 INT, J.Allen 1 sack, B.Mafe 1 sack, B.Carter 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 26)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Willis100% | 15/27 | 137 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -11.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.II65% | 18 | 53% | 88 | 1 | +3.0 |
| M.Willis100% | 8 | 24% | 74 | 1 | +4.3 |
| J.Wright14% | 6 | 18% | 11 | -1.5 | |
| M.Washington80% | 1 | 3% | 18 | +1.6 | |
| C.Bell71% | 1 | 3% | 26 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Washington80% | 8 | 31% | 6 | 43 | +0.9 | |
| K.Jr.64% | 7 | 27% | 3 | 30 | 1 | -2.7 |
| G.Dulcich74% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 37 | +1.3 | |
| J.Tolbert23% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 22 | +0.9 | |
| W.Kacmarek38% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| C.Bell71% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking R.Patterson 1/1 FG (long 29)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Dolphins
Dolphins convert 44% of third downs (8th). Bengals allow 48% (29th).
Deep middle is open
Bengals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.84 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Dolphins take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (31st). Bengals get home on 9% (3rd). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Dolphins gain 5.1 yards per play (22nd). Bengals give up 5.8 (25th), with the league at 5.4.
The Bengals lead the series 7–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | CIN 31 at MIA 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | CIN 45 at MIA 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | MIA 15 at CIN 27 |
| 2020 · Wk 13 | CIN 7 at MIA 19 |
| 2019 · Wk 16 · OT | CIN 35 at MIA 38 |
2026 records
| Bengals | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 1–6 |
| Division | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 1–4 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 0–2 |
| Home | 2–1 | 0–3 |
| Away | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | LLWWW | LLLWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 29.4 – 22.6 | 16.7 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.05#24 | -0.01#14 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 40%#28 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#22 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#6 | 11%#29 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.09#25 | -0.01#11 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#31 | 9%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.12#20 | -0.08#18 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#19 | 4.4#23 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#8 | 48%#29 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#17 | 42%#3 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#22 | 142#15 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#24 | 89#31 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#30 | 9.6#30 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 12#32 | 30#12 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.