2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsTitans defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Texans, 8 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 26–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 62%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 12:17, 10 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:17HOUC.Ward pass short middle intended for T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by J.Hansen (D.Hunter) [D.Hunter] at HOU 40. J.Hansen pushed ob at TEN 41 for 19 yards…76% → 86%
- 2Q1 1:49HOUT.Spears left tackle to TEN 37 for -1 yards (D.Robinson). FUMBLES (D.Robinson), RECOVERED by HOU-J.Pitre at TEN 35.71% → 79%
- 3Q1 4:52HOUC.Stroud pass short left to X.Hutchinson to TEN 24 for 18 yards (A.Taylor).75% → 80%
- 4Q2 13:37HOUK.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD76% → 80%
- 5Q1 7:35HOUW.Marks right tackle to HOU 36 for 12 yards (T.Burgess).70% → 74%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Stroud led the Texans at +10.2 EPA (26 of 34 for 261). W.Robinson led the Titans at +4.4 EPA (6 catches for 53).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 26/34 | 261 | 1 | 2 | +10.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks85% | 15 | 56% | 62 | -1.8 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 6 | 22% | 5 | 1 | -0.4 |
| D.Montgomery14% | 5 | 19% | 11 | -1.9 | |
| J.Noel45% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins71% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 56 | +4.5 | |
| K.Boutte59% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 38 | +2.7 | |
| X.Hutchinson41% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 65 | +4.4 | |
| J.Noel45% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 41 | 1 | +1.9 |
| D.Schultz52% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 30 | +2.2 | |
| W.Marks85% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 23 | +0.4 | |
| F.Moreau39% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 8 | -1.0 |
Defense W.Jr. 3 sacks, J.Hansen 1 INT, D.Hunter 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 4/4 FG (long 53)
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 23/36 | 170 | 1 | 4 | -16.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard48% | 14 | 78% | 52 | -0.4 | |
| T.Spears54% | 2 | 11% | 0 | -5.2 | |
| K.Mullings2% | 1 | 6% | 3 | +0.5 | |
| C.Ward100% | 1 | 6% | 2 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Spears54% | 9 | 26% | 9 | 28 | -2.9 | |
| W.Robinson75% | 7 | 20% | 6 | 53 | +4.4 | |
| C.Tate76% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 6 | -2.9 | |
| C.Dike17% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 28 | -1.4 | |
| C.Ridley56% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 33 | +1.7 | |
| D.Bellinger44% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 5 | -0.7 | |
| E.Ayomanor52% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 17 | -0.1 | |
| T.Pollard48% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -5.8 | |
| K.Granson5% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| G.Helm71% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Defense J.Martin 1 sack, J.Franklin-Myers 0.5 sacks, C.Gray 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Slye 1/1 FG (long 30)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Titans give up 195 yards a game to wide receivers (30th), against a league average of 147. Texans' wide receivers produce 180 (6th).
Deep left is open
Titans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.65 EPA per attempt. Texans send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Texans average 3.4 yards per carry (29th). Titans allow 4.1 (17th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Texans average +0.02 EPA per play (13th). Titans allow +0.07 (25th). League average is +0.00.
The Texans lead the series 25–24 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | HOU 26 at TEN 3 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | HOU 16 at TEN 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 | TEN 0 at HOU 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | HOU 23 at TEN 14 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | TEN 32 at HOU 27 |
2026 records
| Texans | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–5 | 1–7 |
| Division | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 1–5 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Home | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Away | 2–1 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | LLWLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 24.3 | 18.0 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors TEN | TEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#13 | +0.07#25 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#17 | 47%#29 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#10 | 5.9#26 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 10%#24 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.11#13 | +0.18#28 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#11 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#25 | -0.07#20 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.4#29 | 4.1#17 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#25 | 44%#24 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#19 | 67%#21 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 180#6 | 195#30 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 65#8 | 43#6 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.0#5 | 7.0#13 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#26 | 35#20 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Titans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.