2026
Week 5 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Broncos offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Broncos, 7 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 23–17 from as low as 20% (Q4 12:05, down 17–10). The game turned for good at Q4 8:56: B.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN (41% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 8:06, 21 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 8:06DENJ.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (Z.Allen). FUMBLES (Z.Allen) [Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.54% → 75%
- 2Q3 1:07LACK.Vidal left tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.50% → 69%
- 3Q3 1:15LACB.Nix scrambles up the middle to DEN 41 for 1 yard (A.Mesidor, T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-T.Tuipulotu at DEN 42.35% → 50%
- 4Q4 8:56DENB.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point41% → 54%
- 5Q4 12:08LACW.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left69% → 80%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
L.Humphrey led the Broncos at +1.6 EPA (1 catches for 8). T.Jr. led the Chargers at +3.0 EPA (1 catches for 16).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 16/27 | 123 | 1 | 1 | -6.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins52% | 18 | 62% | 68 | 1 | -2.9 |
| B.Nix100% | 4 | 14% | 10 | -4.0 | |
| R.Harvey37% | 3 | 10% | 7 | -1.6 | |
| J.Waddle65% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.9 | |
| A.Prentice10% | 1 | 3% | 3 | 0.0 | |
| T.Badie11% | 1 | 3% | 6 | -0.8 | |
| M.Jr.19% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle65% | 5 | 23% | 2 | 19 | +0.5 | |
| E.Engram48% | 4 | 18% | 4 | 55 | +1.6 | |
| C.Sutton81% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 18 | 1 | +0.7 |
| L.Humphrey23% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 8 | +1.6 | |
| J.Dobbins52% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 6 | -1.0 | |
| M.Jr.19% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 6 | -1.1 | |
| T.Franklin63% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 16 | -0.5 | |
| T.Badie11% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -5 | -1.4 | |
| R.Harvey37% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense N.Bonitto 2 sacks, B.Jones 1 INT, D.Jones 1 sack, Z.Allen 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 3/4 FG (long 36)
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 14/24 | 121 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton30% | 14 | 41% | 33 | -6.1 | |
| K.Vidal42% | 8 | 24% | 57 | 1 | +0.3 |
| J.Herbert100% | 6 | 18% | 54 | -0.6 | |
| K.Mitchell34% | 6 | 18% | 11 | -2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Kolar76% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 37 | -1.3 | |
| K.Mitchell34% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 18 | +0.6 | |
| T.Harris45% | 4 | 19% | 2 | 16 | -0.5 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling75% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 22 | -2.5 | |
| K.Vidal42% | 2 | 10% | 1 | -1 | -1.4 | |
| H.Rucci18% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | 1 | +1.7 |
| O.II58% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | |
| T.Jr.64% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 16 | +3.0 | |
| O.Hampton30% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 |
Defense A.Mesidor 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 1/1 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Broncos take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (6th). Chargers get home on 6% (23rd). League average is 7%.
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.21 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Chargers
Broncos convert 31% of third downs (32nd). Chargers allow 31% (3rd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Broncos gain 4.9 yards per play (26th). Chargers give up 5.6 (20th), with the league at 5.4.
The Broncos lead the series 33–23 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | DEN 23 at LAC 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | LAC 3 at DEN 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | DEN 20 at LAC 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | DEN 27 at LAC 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | LAC 23 at DEN 16 |
2026 records
| Broncos | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 0–7 |
| Division | 2–1 | 0–3 |
| Conference | 3–1 | 0–4 |
| Other conference | 3–1 | 0–3 |
| Home | 4–0 | 0–3 |
| Away | 2–2 | 0–4 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 4 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 21.5 – 20.6 | 14.1 – 25.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#21 | -0.04#9 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 38%#29 | 44%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#26 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#27 | 10%#17 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.02#10 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#6 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#14 | -0.06#23 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#25 | 4.3#21 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 31%#32 | 31%#3 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#8 | 52%#10 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#29 | 133#12 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 28#31 | 52#15 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.9#31 | 6.0#3 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#3 | 22#7 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.