2026
Week 5 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Chargers offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Chargers, 8 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 23–17 from as low as 20% (Q4 12:05, down 17–10). The game turned for good at Q4 8:56: B.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN (41% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 8:06, 21 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 8:06LACJ.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (Z.Allen). FUMBLES (Z.Allen) [Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.54% → 75%
- 2Q3 1:07LACK.Vidal left tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.50% → 69%
- 3Q3 1:15DENB.Nix scrambles up the middle to DEN 41 for 1 yard (A.Mesidor, T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-T.Tuipulotu at DEN 42.35% → 50%
- 4Q4 8:56DENB.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point41% → 54%
- 5Q4 12:08DENW.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left69% → 80%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
L.Humphrey led the Broncos at +1.6 EPA (1 catches for 8). T.Jr. led the Chargers at +3.0 EPA (1 catches for 16).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 16/27 | 123 | 1 | 1 | -6.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins52% | 18 | 62% | 68 | 1 | -2.9 |
| B.Nix100% | 4 | 14% | 10 | -4.0 | |
| R.Harvey37% | 3 | 10% | 7 | -1.6 | |
| J.Waddle65% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.9 | |
| A.Prentice10% | 1 | 3% | 3 | 0.0 | |
| T.Badie11% | 1 | 3% | 6 | -0.8 | |
| M.Jr.19% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle65% | 5 | 23% | 2 | 19 | +0.5 | |
| E.Engram48% | 4 | 18% | 4 | 55 | +1.6 | |
| C.Sutton81% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 18 | 1 | +0.7 |
| L.Humphrey23% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 8 | +1.6 | |
| J.Dobbins52% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 6 | -1.0 | |
| M.Jr.19% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 6 | -1.1 | |
| T.Franklin63% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 16 | -0.5 | |
| T.Badie11% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -5 | -1.4 | |
| R.Harvey37% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense N.Bonitto 2 sacks, B.Jones 1 INT, D.Jones 1 sack, Z.Allen 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 3/4 FG (42 no good), 2/2 XP, 11 pts
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 14/24 | 121 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton30% | 14 | 41% | 33 | -6.1 | |
| K.Vidal42% | 8 | 24% | 57 | 1 | +0.3 |
| J.Herbert100% | 6 | 18% | 54 | -0.6 | |
| K.Mitchell34% | 6 | 18% | 11 | -2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Kolar76% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 37 | -1.3 | |
| K.Mitchell34% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 18 | +0.6 | |
| T.Harris45% | 4 | 19% | 2 | 16 | -0.5 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling75% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 22 | -2.5 | |
| K.Vidal42% | 2 | 10% | 1 | -1 | -1.4 | |
| H.Rucci18% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | 1 | +1.7 |
| O.II58% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | |
| T.Jr.64% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 16 | +3.0 | |
| O.Hampton30% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 |
Defense A.Mesidor 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 1/1 FG, 2/2 XP, 5 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Broncos give up 48 yards a game to running backs (31st), against a league average of 32. Chargers' running backs produce 31 (15th).
Short middle is open
Broncos are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.27 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 18% of their throws there.
Passing lanes are closed
Chargers gain -0.30 EPA per dropback (32nd). Broncos allow -0.06 (6th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Chargers create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (25th). Broncos give them up at 9% (15th).
The Broncos lead the series 33–23 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | DEN 23 at LAC 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | LAC 3 at DEN 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | DEN 20 at LAC 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | DEN 27 at LAC 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | LAC 23 at DEN 16 |
2026 records
| Broncos | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–2 | 0–7 |
| Division | 2–1 | 0–3 |
| Conference | 3–1 | 0–4 |
| Other conference | 3–1 | 0–3 |
| Home | 4–0 | 0–3 |
| Away | 2–2 | 0–4 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 4 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 21.5 – 20.6 | 14.1 – 25.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.26#32 | -0.03#13 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 35%#32 | 40%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.7#30 | 5.2#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 9%#15 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.30#32 | -0.06#6 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.23#31 | -0.02#26 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#23 | 4.4#22 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#26 | 43%#22 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#29 | 48%#8 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 122#27 | 131#9 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 47#22 | 68#26 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#17 | 8.8#27 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#15 | 48#31 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.