2026
Week 5 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Buccaneers, 8 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 24–16 from as low as 12% (Q1 9:33, down 7–0). The Cowboys had been 76% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 9:36: J.Daniels pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at DAL 15 for 64 yards (M.Hooker) (45% → 61%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:22, 24 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:22TBD.Prescott pass short middle intended for J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at TB 12. A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.74% → 99%
- 2Q3 10:51TBD.Prescott pass short middle intended for R.Flournoy INTERCEPTED by Y.Diaby at TB 24. Y.Diaby to TB 25 for 1 yard (C.Beebe; T.Booker).32% → 50%
- 3Q3 9:36TBJ.Daniels pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at DAL 15 for 64 yards (M.Hooker).turning point45% → 61%
- 4Q3 14:54TBB.Irving left tackle pushed ob at DAL 14 for 72 yards (C.Downs).22% → 35%
- 5Q3 7:31TBC.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to DAL 4. K.Turpin to DAL 28 for 24 yards (M.Killebrew). FUMBLES (M.Killebrew), RECOVERED by TB-K.Knowles…69% → 78%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Irving led the Buccaneers at +7.6 EPA (21 carries for 165). G.Pickens led the Cowboys at +6.4 EPA (9 catches for 130).
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 19/25 | 189 | 1 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving54% | 21 | 54% | 165 | 1 | +6.3 |
| J.Daniels100% | 7 | 18% | 23 | +1.0 | |
| S.Tucker10% | 5 | 13% | 18 | -4.2 | |
| K.Gainwell36% | 4 | 10% | 18 | -0.5 | |
| C.Jr.88% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| E.Egbuka89% | 1 | 3% | 14 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka89% | 9 | 36% | 6 | 38 | +0.5 | |
| K.Gainwell36% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 10 | -2.5 | |
| C.Otton92% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 25 | +2.0 | |
| C.Jr.88% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 37 | +0.9 | |
| B.Irving54% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 10 | 1 | +1.3 |
| P.Durham38% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 | |
| T.Johnson39% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 64 | +5.4 |
Defense A.Anzalone 1 INT, Y.Diaby 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 1/1 FG (long 41)
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 24/42 | 316 | 1 | 2 | -3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams85% | 12 | 92% | 45 | 1 | -0.1 |
| H.Luepke12% | 1 | 8% | 5 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens88% | 13 | 31% | 9 | 130 | 1 | +6.4 |
| J.Ferguson83% | 6 | 14% | 3 | 19 | -7.1 | |
| C.Lamb57% | 5 | 12% | 2 | 9 | -2.8 | |
| K.Turpin40% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 22 | +0.3 | |
| J.Mingo20% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 20 | +0.7 | |
| R.Flournoy68% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 90 | -0.4 | |
| J.Williams85% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 17 | +0.3 | |
| B.Spann-Ford33% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| L.Schoonmaker8% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 9 | +0.4 |
Defense M.Lawrence 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 1/1 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Buccaneers average 5.0 yards per carry (3rd). Cowboys allow 5.1 (31st).
Short middle is open
Cowboys are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.59 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 12% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Cowboys give up 27 yards a game to running backs (10th), against a league average of 32. Buccaneers' running backs produce 17 (29th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers succeed on 41% of plays (26th) against a defense that allows 46% (28th).
The Cowboys lead the series 9–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | TB 24 at DAL 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | TB 24 at DAL 26 |
| 2022 · Wk 19 · playoffs | DAL 31 at TB 14 |
| 2022 · Wk 1 | TB 19 at DAL 3 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 | DAL 29 at TB 31 |
2026 records
| Buccaneers | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Division | 2–0 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 1–1 |
| Home | 1–4 | 1–3 |
| Away | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | LWLWW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 18.9 | 27.4 – 26.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Buccaneers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#26 | +0.13#31 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#26 | 46%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#25 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 11%#27 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.23#31 | +0.21#30 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#30 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.01#8 | -0.01#29 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.0#3 | 5.1#31 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#14 | 53%#31 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#27 | 70%#26 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 104#31 | 164#26 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 27#32 | 53#16 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.1#32 | 7.1#14 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#29 | 27#10 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.