2026
Week 5 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Lions offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Lions, 8 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 45–21; their low point was 44% at Q1 3:46. The game turned for good at Q2 13:37: J.Goff pass short middle to S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35 (44% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 9:38, 14 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 9:38DETJ.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 83%
- 2Q2 13:37DETJ.Goff pass short middle to S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.turning point44% → 58%
- 3Q1 10:18ARIJ.Brissett pass short middle to K.Bourne to DET 30 for 22 yards (R.McCreary).32% → 41%
- 4Q1 13:39DETJ.Goff sacked at DET 24 for -12 yards (B.Baker).31% → 40%
- 5Q1 5:56ARIMi.Wilson pass short right to J.Brissett to DET 2 for 7 yards (J.Campbell; E.Rakestraw).40% → 47%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Goff led the Lions at +18.7 EPA (19 of 30 for 271). T.McBride led the Cardinals at +7.4 EPA (9 catches for 66).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff95% | 19/30 | 271 | 3 | 3 | +16.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs70% | 25 | 78% | 151 | 2 | +6.0 |
| S.Vaki35% | 6 | 19% | 11 | -3.4 | |
| J.Goff95% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown86% | 11 | 38% | 6 | 69 | +2.7 | |
| J.Gibbs70% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 56 | +0.1 | |
| S.LaPorta89% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 88 | 1 | +12.9 |
| J.Williams89% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 47 | 2 | +8.1 |
| I.TeSlaa39% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -2.7 | |
| B.Wright67% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +1.1 |
Defense D.Wonnum 2 sacks, K.II 1 INT, D.Barnes 1 sack, A.McNeill 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Bates 1/1 FG, 6/6 XP, 9 pts
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 29/47 | 292 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +3.0 |
| M.Wilson84% | 1/1 | 7 | +2.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love49% | 12 | 67% | 22 | -4.4 | |
| T.Allgeier44% | 3 | 17% | 7 | -1.0 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 2 | 11% | 19 | +1.5 | |
| B.Knight8% | 1 | 6% | 8 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride90% | 10 | 22% | 9 | 66 | 1 | +7.4 |
| K.Bourne49% | 8 | 17% | 5 | 70 | +4.2 | |
| M.Wilson84% | 7 | 15% | 4 | 30 | -0.5 | |
| J.Brooks53% | 7 | 15% | 2 | 16 | -3.5 | |
| R.Virgil18% | 5 | 11% | 2 | 29 | +0.9 | |
| E.Higgins53% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 57 | +4.1 | |
| T.Allgeier44% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 9 | -0.2 | |
| T.Quitoriano41% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 15 | 2 | +2.2 |
| J.Brissett100% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 7 | +2.3 | |
| J.Love49% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
Defense B.Baker 1 sack, R.Lopez 1 sack, B.Browning 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 0/1 FG (53 no good), 3/3 XP, 3 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Lions gain +0.25 EPA per dropback (2nd). Cardinals allow +0.23 (31st).
Deep right is open
Cardinals are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.75 EPA per attempt. Lions send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Lions' run game is 14th in EPA per carry (-0.05). Cardinals allow -0.14 (6th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Lions succeed on 49% of plays (3rd) against a defense that allows 43% (13th).
The Cardinals lead the series 10–9–1 since 1999. The Lions have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | DET 45 at ARI 21 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | DET 20 at ARI 13 |
| 2021 · Wk 15 | ARI 12 at DET 30 |
| 2020 · Wk 3 | DET 26 at ARI 23 |
| 2019 · Wk 1 · OT | DET 27 at ARI 27 |
2026 records
| Lions | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 3–5 |
| Division | 2–0 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 2–4 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 4–0 | 0–3 |
| Away | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LLWLW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 29.0 – 25.7 | 21.9 – 29.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#6 | +0.08#26 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#3 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#7 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 10%#19 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.25#2 | +0.23#31 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#14 | -0.14#6 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#6 | 3.9#13 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 41%#17 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#5 | 67%#21 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 173#7 | 152#21 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#14 | 56#20 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#15 | 7.0#12 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#5 | 30#13 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.