2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium
vs
Giants offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Giants, 7 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
Neither team won: 27–27 after overtime. The Commanders got as high as 97% (Q4 7:24), and the Giants never had better than even odds. The biggest single swing came at Q2 2:08, 15 points for the Commanders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 2:08WASJ.Winston sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (K.Chaisson), touched at NYG 39, RECOVERED by WAS-T.Settle at NYG 28. T.Settle to…71% → 86%
- 2Q4 1:48NYGJ.Winston pass deep middle to M.Nabers for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21% → 32%
- 3Q4 0:44NYGJ.Daniels sacked at WAS 46 for -3 yards (A.Reese).28% → 38%
- 4Q3 7:56WASJ.Daniels scrambles up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.84% → 94%
- 5Q4 0:20NYGJ.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to D.Brown.38% → 47%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
J.Winston led the Giants at +14.7 EPA (33 of 54 for 326). J.Daniels led the Commanders at +7.4 EPA (17 of 25 for 199).
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Winston94% | 33/54 | 326 | 3 | 2 | +10.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Skattebo63% | 13 | 46% | 59 | -2.6 | |
| J.Winston94% | 5 | 18% | 27 | +4.1 | |
| N.Harris18% | 5 | 18% | 9 | -2.4 | |
| T.Jr.19% | 3 | 11% | 6 | -1.5 | |
| J.McCarthy6% | 2 | 7% | 2 | -2.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Nabers90% | 20 | 38% | 11 | 121 | 1 | +3.4 |
| I.Likely80% | 13 | 25% | 11 | 94 | 2 | +10.4 |
| D.Mooney65% | 7 | 13% | 2 | 14 | -3.7 | |
| T.Jr.19% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 25 | +2.7 | |
| T.Johnson48% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 35 | +2.6 | |
| C.Skattebo63% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 12 | +1.4 | |
| M.Fields72% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 20 | +1.8 | |
| N.Harris18% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 |
Defense A.Phillips 2 sacks, T.Edmunds 1 sack, A.Carter 1 sack, A.Reese 1 sack · Kicking D.Zvada 2/5 FG (long 56)
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 17/25 | 199 | 5 | -2.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt35% | 11 | 37% | 82 | 1 | +3.4 |
| J.Daniels100% | 9 | 30% | 103 | 2 | +9.8 |
| R.White60% | 7 | 23% | 18 | -2.1 | |
| A.Ekeler10% | 3 | 10% | -1 | -2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Okonkwo71% | 6 | 26% | 4 | 60 | +3.3 | |
| T.Burks73% | 5 | 22% | 2 | 26 | -1.0 | |
| T.McLaurin58% | 4 | 17% | 4 | 62 | +3.2 | |
| A.Williams68% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 31 | +2.8 | |
| D.Brown37% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 2 | -1.4 | |
| A.Ekeler10% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +1.6 | |
| J.Bates45% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | -0.7 | |
| R.White60% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.6 |
Defense D.Payne 1 sack, K.Chaisson 1 sack · Kicking D.Stevens 2/2 FG (long 40)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Commanders give up 75 yards a game to tight ends (30th), against a league average of 55. Giants' tight ends produce 68 (5th).
Deep right is open
Commanders are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.19 EPA per attempt. Giants send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Giants average 4.0 yards per carry (17th). Commanders allow 3.5 (5th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Giants gain 5.4 yards per play (18th). Commanders give up 5.4 (17th), with the league at 5.4.
The Giants lead the series 32–21–2 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 · OT | NYG 27 at WAS 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | WAS 29 at NYG 21 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | NYG 6 at WAS 21 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | WAS 27 at NYG 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | NYG 18 at WAS 21 |
2026 records
| Giants | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–2–1 | 2–4–1 |
| Division | 1–0–1 | 1–2–1 |
| Conference | 2–2–1 | 2–3–1 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–1 |
| Home | 3–1 | 2–1–1 |
| Away | 1–1–1 | 0–3 |
| Last 5 | WWTLW | WLTLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.3 – 23.0 | 22.7 – 26.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYG off | Favors NYG · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#16 | +0.03#21 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#20 | 46%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#18 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#20 | 8%#8 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#17 | +0.02#17 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#25 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#17 | -0.08#16 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#17 | 3.5#5 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#12 | 44%#26 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#11 | 79%#29 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#16 | 149#18 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 68#5 | 75#30 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 10.4#3 | 8.0#22 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#21 | 36#22 | 32 | |
Giants: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.