DOWN X DOWN › week 5 › Giants at Commanders

Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET

2026

Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium

Commanders offensevsGiants defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Commanders, 7 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

NYG offense WAS offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · OT · NYG 27 · WAS 27

Neither team won: 27–27 after overtime. The Commanders got as high as 97% (Q4 7:24), and the Giants never had better than even odds. The biggest single swing came at Q2 2:08, 15 points for the Commanders.

At kickoffWAS 61%WAS by 3.5 on the line

Closest to winningWAS 97%Q4 7:24 · up 27⁠–⁠13

Swings past 50%0times the favorite changed

Biggest swing15 ptsWAS · Q2 2:08

WAS wins50%NYG wins

12345

Overtime

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT

The plays that swung it

1Q2 2:08NYGJ.Winston sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (K.Chaisson), touched at NYG 39, RECOVERED by WAS-T.Settle at NYG 28. T.Settle to…71% → 86%+15 WAS
2Q4 1:48NYGJ.Winston pass deep middle to M.Nabers for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21% → 32%+11 NYG
3Q4 0:44WASJ.Daniels sacked at WAS 46 for -3 yards (A.Reese).28% → 38%+10 NYG
4Q3 7:56WASJ.Daniels scrambles up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.84% → 94%+10 WAS
5Q4 0:20WASJ.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to D.Brown.38% → 47%+9 NYG

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 5

J.Winston led the Giants at +14.7 EPA (33 of 54 for 326). J.Daniels led the Commanders at +7.4 EPA (17 of 25 for 199).

Giants

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Winston94%	33/54	326	3		2	+10.6

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
C.Skattebo63%	13	46%	59	-2.6
J.Winston94%	5	18%	27	+4.1
N.Harris18%	5	18%	9	-2.4
T.Jr.19%	3	11%	6	-1.5
J.McCarthy6%	2	7%	2	-2.8

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
M.Nabers90%	20	38%	11	121	1	+3.4
I.Likely80%	13	25%	11	94	2	+10.4
D.Mooney65%	7	13%	2	14		-3.7
T.Jr.19%	3	6%	2	25		+2.7
T.Johnson48%	3	6%	2	35		+2.6
C.Skattebo63%	3	6%	2	12		+1.4
M.Fields72%	2	4%	2	20		+1.8
N.Harris18%	1	2%	1	5		+0.1

Defense A.Phillips 2 sacks, T.Edmunds 1 sack, A.Carter 1 sack, A.Reese 1 sack · Kicking D.Zvada 2/5 FG (50 no good, 57 no good, 46 no good), 3/3 XP, 9 pts

Commanders

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Daniels100%	17/25	199			5	-2.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Croskey-Merritt35%	11	37%	82	1	+3.4
J.Daniels100%	9	30%	103	2	+9.8
R.White60%	7	23%	18		-2.1
A.Ekeler10%	3	10%	-1		-2.0

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
C.Okonkwo71%	6	26%	4	60	+3.3
T.Burks73%	5	22%	2	26	-1.0
T.McLaurin58%	4	17%	4	62	+3.2
A.Williams68%	3	13%	3	31	+2.8
D.Brown37%	2	9%	1	2	-1.4
A.Ekeler10%	1	4%	1	15	+1.6
J.Bates45%	1	4%	1	1	-0.7
R.White60%	1	4%	1	2	-0.6

Defense D.Payne 1 sack, K.Chaisson 1 sack · Kicking D.Stevens 2/2 FG, 1/2 XP, 7 pts

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Clean pockets

Commanders take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (18th). Giants get home on 4% (30th). League average is 7%.

Opportunity

Short middle is open

Giants are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.46 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 18% of their throws there.

Watch out

Checkdowns go nowhere

Giants give up 21 yards a game to running backs (5th), against a league average of 32. Commanders' running backs produce 24 (24th).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Commanders average -0.01 EPA per play (18th). Giants allow +0.01 (16th). League average is +0.00.

The series · Giants and Commanders since 1999, and this season's records55 meetings

The Giants lead the series 32–21–2 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.

Giants at home16–10–1the Giants' record

In Washington16–11–1the Giants' record

Most pointsGiants 45 · Commanders 502009 · 1999

Biggest winGiants by 36 · Commanders by 292005 · 1999

The last 5

2026 · Wk 5 · OT	NYG 27 at WAS 27
2025 · Wk 15	WAS 29 at NYG 21
2025 · Wk 1	NYG 6 at WAS 21
2024 · Wk 9	WAS 27 at NYG 22
2024 · Wk 2	NYG 18 at WAS 21

2026 records

	Giants	Commanders
Overall	4–2–1	2–4–1
Division	1–0–1	1–2–1
Conference	2–2–1	2–3–1
Other conference	2–0	0–1
Home	3–1	2–1–1
Away	1–1–1	0–3
Last 5	WWTLW	WLTLW
Streak	Won 1	Won 1
Points a game	23.3 – 23.0	22.7 – 26.0

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · WAS offense against NYG defense

Stat	WAS off	NYG def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.01#18	+0.01#16	+0.00
Success rate	41%#24	43%#12	44%
Yards per play	5.3#21	5.4#15	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#14	10%#18	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.01#20	-0.01#14	+0.03
Sack rate	7%#18	4%#30	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.12#21	-0.07#21	-0.08
Yards per carry	3.9#18	4.5#24	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	32%#31	40%#13	41%
Red zone TD rate	55%#21	83%#31	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	156#13	127#7	147
TE yards per game	33#27	45#8	55
TE targets per game	5.1#28	8.1#24	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	24#24	21#5	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Commanders: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.639% of throws

4too few

-0.0313% of throws

Short

+0.1026% of throws

+0.1318% of throws

-0.0233% of throws

Giants: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.3118 throws

+0.627 throws

-0.0516 throws