2025
Week 11 · Sunday 9:30 AM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 17 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Dolphins won 16–13 from as low as 21% (Q4 0:57, tied 13–13). Tied 13–13 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 7:37: R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:15, 30 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:15MIAM.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right32% → 62%
- 2Q4 1:44WASD.O.Gordon up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (E.Goldman, F.Luvu).16% → 43%
- 3Q4 4:21MIAJ.Bailey punts 51 yards to WAS 36 M.Sainristil MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-E.Bonner at WAS 42.40% → 67%
- 4Q4 6:06MIAM.Mariota pass incomplete short left to Z.Ertz. ** Injury Update: WAS-S.Cosmi has returned to the game.34% → 53%
- 5Q4 1:05WASM.Mariota pass short right to Ja.Jones ran ob at MIA 40 for 25 yards (A.Davis; M.Fitzpatrick).60% → 79%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
M.Mariota led the Commanders at +5.3 EPA (20 of 30 for 213). M.Washington led the Dolphins at +5.1 EPA (3 catches for 42).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota99% | 20/30 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.45% | 15 | 45% | 79 | +0.4 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt27% | 9 | 27% | 28 | -1.7 | |
| M.Mariota99% | 4 | 12% | 49 | +1.3 | |
| J.McNichols25% | 4 | 12% | 13 | -0.7 | |
| D.Sr.75% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Ertz75% | 8 | 28% | 4 | 42 | -6.3 | |
| D.Sr.75% | 8 | 28% | 7 | 74 | 1 | +2.4 |
| C.Moore82% | 5 | 17% | 2 | 28 | +1.6 | |
| J.McNichols25% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 16 | +3.1 | |
| R.Chosen36% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | |
| C.Jr.45% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.4 | |
| C.Yankoff27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +2.4 | |
| J.Lane15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +1.2 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.6 | |
| J.Jones | 1 | 3% | 1 | 25 | +1.6 |
Defense V.Miller 1 sack, J.Jones 1 sack, J.Martin 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 2/4 FG (long 30)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 14/20 | 171 | 3 | +2.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane80% | 21 | 68% | 120 | -0.7 | |
| O.II39% | 9 | 29% | 45 | 1 | -2.5 |
| J.Wright2% | 1 | 3% | 4 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle84% | 7 | 35% | 3 | 52 | -0.2 | |
| D.Achane80% | 5 | 25% | 5 | 45 | +1.2 | |
| G.Dulcich54% | 4 | 20% | 2 | 18 | +0.1 | |
| M.Washington50% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 42 | +5.1 | |
| J.Hill46% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 14 | +1.0 |
Defense J.Jones 1 INT, T.Dodson 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 3/3 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Dolphins average 4.8 yards per carry (3rd). Commanders allow 4.7 (28th).
Deep middle is open
Commanders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.54 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Commanders give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 7.3. Dolphins' tight ends produce 6.0 (25th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Dolphins succeed on 42% of plays (26th) against a defense that allows 48% (27th).
The Dolphins lead the series 5–3 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 11 · OT | WAS 13 at MIA 16 |
| 2023 · Wk 13 | MIA 45 at WAS 15 |
| 2019 · Wk 6 | WAS 17 at MIA 16 |
| 2015 · Wk 1 | MIA 17 at WAS 10 |
| 2011 · Wk 10 | WAS 9 at MIA 20 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 7–10 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 2–6 | 5–4 |
| Away | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#21 | +0.14#30 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#26 | 48%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 11%#26 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#18 | +0.20#30 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 7%#12 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#9 | +0.03#28 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#3 | 4.7#28 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#26 | 42%#22 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#23 | 67%#30 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 110#26 | 163#27 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 50#19 | 61#26 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#25 | 6.7#10 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#9 | 33#21 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.