2025
Week 13 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
vs
Titans offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Titans, 18 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 25–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 58%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 3:25, 9 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:25JAXT.Lawrence pass deep middle to J.Meyers to TEN 6 for 50 yards (C.Gray).66% → 75%
- 2Q1 4:09JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left to P.Washington to JAX 44 for 26 yards (K.Winston; M.Harris).58% → 66%
- 3Q1 12:36JAXT.Lawrence sacked at JAX 37 for -10 yards (K.Winston).28% → 34%
- 4Q1 1:06JAXT.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Meyers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.71% → 77%
- 5Q1 1:04TENC.Little kicks 52 yards from JAX 35 to TEN 13. C.Dike to TEN 38 for 25 yards (Q.Morris). Jacksonville challenged the runner was down by contact…78% → 84%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +8.3 EPA (16 of 27 for 229). X.Restrepo led the Titans at +1.4 EPA (1 catches for 15).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence95% | 16/27 | 229 | 2 | 3 | +4.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne49% | 12 | 44% | 28 | -4.2 | |
| B.Tuten29% | 8 | 30% | 17 | 1 | -3.1 |
| N.Mullens5% | 3 | 11% | -3 | -2.5 | |
| T.Lawrence95% | 3 | 11% | 25 | +3.4 | |
| J.Meyers92% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers92% | 6 | 24% | 6 | 90 | 1 | +8.2 |
| A.Trammell54% | 4 | 16% | 0 | 0 | -3.1 | |
| B.Strange84% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 45 | 1 | +2.1 |
| P.Washington38% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 26 | +0.6 | |
| B.Jr.75% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 28 | +3.1 | |
| Q.Morris19% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 14 | +0.1 | |
| T.Patrick11% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +1.1 | |
| T.Etienne49% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +1.0 | |
| B.Tuten29% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Hines-Allen 2 sacks, A.Johnson 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 1/1 FG (long 45)
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 24/38 | 141 | 3 | -20.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard46% | 10 | 71% | 60 | +1.9 | |
| T.Spears47% | 2 | 14% | -1 | -1.7 | |
| C.Ward100% | 1 | 7% | 7 | +1.5 | |
| C.Dike76% | 1 | 7% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Helm53% | 7 | 20% | 6 | 23 | -4.1 | |
| T.Spears47% | 6 | 17% | 6 | 25 | +0.7 | |
| C.Okonkwo61% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 29 | -0.8 | |
| E.Ayomanor85% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 5 | -5.1 | |
| V.Jefferson75% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 20 | -0.5 | |
| C.Dike76% | 4 | 11% | 1 | 8 | -2.2 | |
| T.Pollard46% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 3 | -7.2 | |
| J.Proche15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 13 | +0.4 | |
| X.Restrepo19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 15 | +1.4 |
Defense J.Ward 1 sack, J.Simmons 1 sack, K.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking J.Slye 1/1 FG (long 28)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Jaguars give up 8.7 targets a game to tight ends (31st), against a league average of 7.3. Titans' tight ends produce 8.2 (8th).
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Titans send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Titans gain -0.22 EPA per dropback (31st). Jaguars allow -0.12 (4th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Titans gain 4.4 yards per play (30th). Jaguars give up 5.1 (8th), with the league at 5.4.
The Titans lead the series 32–23 since 1999. The Jaguars have won the last 4. Jan 4, 2026, at TIAA Bank Stadium: the Jaguars won 41–7. Trevor Lawrence started at quarterback for the Jaguars and Cam Ward for the Titans; Liam Coen and Brian Callahan coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 18 | TEN 7 at JAX 41 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | JAX 25 at TEN 3 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | TEN 13 at JAX 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | JAX 10 at TEN 6 |
| 2023 · Wk 18 | JAX 20 at TEN 28 |
2025 records
| Jaguars | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13–4 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 7–2 | 1–8 |
| Away | 6–2 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WLWLL |
| Streak | Won 8 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 27.9 – 19.8 | 16.7 – 28.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TEN off | Favors TEN · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.16#30 | -0.09#6 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 42%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#30 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#26 | 8%#3 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#31 | -0.12#4 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 5%#30 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#26 | -0.07#16 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#19 | 3.7#4 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#32 | 42%#21 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#14 | 64%#24 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#27 | 143#18 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#13 | 59#23 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#8 | 8.7#31 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#19 | 32#20 | 32 | |
Titans: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.