2025
Week 18 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsTitans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 17 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 41–7 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:40, 20 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:40JAXL.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 42, out of bounds.59% → 78%
- 2Q1 11:46TENC.Ward pass deep right to E.Ayomanor to JAX 19 for 39 yards (E.Murray).17% → 30%
- 3Q1 10:16TENC.Ward right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-C.Ward was injured during the play.27% → 37%
- 4Q2 8:20JAXB.Allen pass short middle intended for E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by An.Johnson at JAX 42. An.Johnson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.87% → 96%
- 5Q1 9:34JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left to B.Thomas pushed ob at TEN 43 for 22 yards (D.Baker).64% → 73%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Ward led the Titans at +5.7 EPA (3 of 3 for 52). T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +11.6 EPA (22 of 30 for 255).
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Allen91% | 17/30 | 72 | 1 | 1 | -24.0 | |
| C.Ward9% | 3/3 | 52 | +4.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard63% | 14 | 74% | 48 | -0.9 | |
| T.Spears46% | 3 | 16% | 18 | +0.8 | |
| C.Ward9% | 2 | 11% | 11 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Ayomanor94% | 10 | 30% | 3 | 50 | -8.2 | |
| T.Spears46% | 7 | 21% | 7 | 9 | -5.3 | |
| C.Okonkwo80% | 5 | 15% | 2 | 2 | -3.8 | |
| C.Dike72% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 27 | +1.4 | |
| T.Pollard63% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 17 | +0.5 | |
| D.Martin-Robinson41% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 14 | -2.6 | |
| J.Proche48% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 |
Defense J.Simmons 1 sack, J.Harrell 1 sack · Kicking J.Slye 0/1 FG
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence82% | 22/30 | 255 | 3 | 2 | +10.2 | |
| N.Mullens18% | 2/2 | 16 | +3.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne56% | 14 | 58% | 32 | -3.7 | |
| B.Tuten26% | 5 | 21% | 23 | 1 | +0.7 |
| N.Mullens18% | 3 | 13% | -2 | 0.0 | |
| T.Lawrence82% | 2 | 8% | 11 | +1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Washington74% | 9 | 29% | 5 | 87 | 1 | +2.6 |
| J.Meyers79% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 44 | +3.1 | |
| B.Strange62% | 6 | 19% | 6 | 52 | 1 | +4.9 |
| B.Jr.57% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 49 | +2.8 | |
| J.Mundt31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +1.0 | |
| T.Patrick36% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 | |
| Q.Morris43% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1.8 |
| D.Brown13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +1.8 | |
| T.Etienne56% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.8 |
Defense A.Johnson 1 INT, D.Smoot 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 2/2 FG (long 67)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Jaguars score a touchdown on 64% of red zone trips (9th). Titans allow 67% (31st).
Deep middle is open
Titans are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Titans give up 27 yards a game to running backs (7th), against a league average of 32. Jaguars' running backs produce 27 (23rd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jaguars succeed on 45% of plays (13th) against a defense that allows 45% (22nd).
The Titans lead the series 32–23 since 1999. The Jaguars have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 18 | TEN 7 at JAX 41 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | JAX 25 at TEN 3 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | TEN 13 at JAX 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | JAX 10 at TEN 6 |
| 2023 · Wk 18 | JAX 20 at TEN 28 |
2025 records
| Titans | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 13–4 |
| Division | 0–6 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 1–8 | 7–2 |
| Away | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 8 |
| Points a game | 16.7 – 28.1 | 27.9 – 19.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Titans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors TEN | TEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | +0.10#28 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 45%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 6.0#28 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 11%#22 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | +0.17#29 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | -0.02#22 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 4.2#18 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 42%#19 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 67%#31 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 166#28 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 56#21 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 7.1#15 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 27#7 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Titans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.