2025
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
vs
Titans offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Titans, 17 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Colts won 41–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:20, 11 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:20INDC.Ward pass short right intended for T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by K.Moore at TEN 32. K.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.74% → 85%
- 2Q2 3:19TENS.Shrader 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right5% → 9%
- 3Q1 10:43INDD.Jones pass deep right to J.Downs ran ob at TEN 13 for 29 yards (A.Hooker) [A.Key].85% → 90%
- 4Q1 12:45TENJ.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD14% → 17%
- 5Q1 7:40TENS.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD13% → 16%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Jones led the Colts at +15.8 EPA (18 of 25 for 228). E.Ayomanor led the Titans at +5.9 EPA (4 catches for 38).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones88% | 18/25 | 228 | 1 | +10.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor79% | 17 | 61% | 102 | 3 | +3.5 |
| D.Jones88% | 4 | 14% | 27 | +4.9 | |
| A.Richardson12% | 4 | 14% | -1 | -2.4 | |
| T.Goodson7% | 2 | 7% | 6 | -0.5 | |
| D.Giddens14% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Pittman81% | 6 | 24% | 6 | 73 | 1 | +5.5 |
| A.Pierce54% | 5 | 20% | 4 | 67 | +4.6 | |
| T.Warren68% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 38 | +2.2 | |
| J.Taylor79% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 16 | -0.9 | |
| J.Downs51% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 34 | +1.7 | |
| A.Mitchell42% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -2.3 |
Defense T.Lewis 2 sacks, K.II 1 INT, N.Gallimore 1 sack, K.Paye 1 sack · Kicking S.Shrader 2/3 FG (long 36)
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 23/38 | 219 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -12.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard91% | 16 | 70% | 45 | 1 | -1.2 |
| C.Ward100% | 3 | 13% | 12 | +1.2 | |
| J.Chestnut9% | 2 | 9% | 26 | +2.0 | |
| C.Dike41% | 2 | 9% | 3 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ridley87% | 7 | 21% | 1 | 27 | -4.5 | |
| C.Okonkwo66% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 66 | +1.3 | |
| E.Ayomanor74% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 38 | 1 | +5.9 |
| T.Lockett54% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 37 | +3.6 | |
| T.Pollard91% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 14 | -8.3 | |
| C.Dike41% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 2 | -1.8 | |
| G.Helm39% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 27 | +1.4 | |
| V.Jefferson34% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.2 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking J.Slye 2/4 FG (long 57)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Colts give up 8.4 targets a game to tight ends (29th), against a league average of 7.3. Titans' tight ends produce 8.2 (8th).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.86 EPA per attempt. Titans send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Titans' run game is 26th in EPA per carry (-0.09). Colts allow -0.09 (8th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Titans succeed on 37% of plays (31st) against a defense that allows 45% (23rd).
The Colts lead the series 34–16 since 1999. Oct 18, 2026, at Lucas Oil Stadium: the Titans won 26–20. Daniel Jones started at quarterback for the Colts and Cam Ward for the Titans; Shane Steichen and Robert Saleh coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | TEN 26 at IND 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 8 | TEN 14 at IND 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | IND 41 at TEN 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | TEN 30 at IND 38 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | IND 20 at TEN 17 |
2025 records
| Colts | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 3–14 |
| Division | 2–4 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–3 | 1–8 |
| Away | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WLWLL |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 16.7 – 28.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TEN off | Favors TEN · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.16#30 | +0.00#16 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#30 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#26 | 9%#14 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#31 | +0.04#18 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 9%#26 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#26 | -0.09#8 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#19 | 3.8#5 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#32 | 44%#25 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#14 | 56%#12 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#27 | 168#31 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#13 | 70#31 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#8 | 8.4#29 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 28#19 | 24#4 | 32 | |
Titans: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.