DOWN X DOWN › week 4 › Jaguars at 49ers

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2025

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Week 4 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Levi's Stadium

Jaguars offensevs49ers defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

JAX offense SF offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · JAX 26 · SF 21

The Jaguars won 26–21; their low point was 29% at Q1 9:59. The 49ers had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 13:10: B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by D.Lloyd at JAX 21. D.Lloyd to JAX 27 for 6 yards (C.Colby). PENALTY on… (48% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:52, 21 points for the Jaguars.

At kickoffSF 61%SF by 3.5 on the line

JAX low point29%Q1 9:59 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%3times the favorite changed

Biggest swing21 ptsJAX · Q4 2:52

SF wins50%JAX wins

12345Turning pointJAX low 29%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 2:52JAXB.Purdy sacked at SF 43 for -7 yards (A.Armstead). FUMBLES (A.Armstead), RECOVERED by JAX-F.Oluokun at SF 47. JAX-D.Hamilton was injured during…68% → 89%+21
2Q3 6:14JAXB.Purdy pass deep middle intended for J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by D.Lloyd (M.Smith) at SF 36. D.Lloyd to SF 28 for 8 yards (J.Tonges; C.McKivitz).…54% → 70%+16
3Q2 14:50JAXT.Etienne left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.38% → 53%+15
4Q3 2:40JAXT.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 13 P.Washington for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.73% → 87%+13
5Q4 3:35SFC.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right17% → 28%+11
★Q2 13:10JAXB.Purdy pass deep middle intended for C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by D.Lloyd at JAX 21. D.Lloyd to JAX 27 for 6 yards (C.Colby). PENALTY on…turning point48% → 58%+10

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 4

T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +6.1 EPA (21 of 31 for 174). R.Pearsall led the 49ers at +5.7 EPA (4 catches for 46).

Jaguars

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Lawrence100%	21/31	174	1			+5.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
T.Etienne60%	19	59%	124	1	0.0
T.Lawrence100%	7	22%	7		+0.5
B.Tuten24%	4	13%	14		-2.3
P.Washington85%	1	3%	-1		-1.0
B.Jr.79%	1	3%	7		+0.4

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
B.Strange74%	7	23%	6	45		+2.3
B.Jr.79%	7	23%	5	49		+1.3
T.Hunter56%	5	17%	3	42		+2.3
H.Long32%	3	10%	3	23	1	+3.5
T.Etienne60%	2	7%	1	1		-1.6
P.Washington85%	2	7%	0	0		-3.2
J.Mundt37%	1	3%	0	0		-0.5
T.Patrick29%	1	3%	1	-1		-0.6
L.Jr.18%	1	3%	1	7		+1.3
B.Tuten24%	1	3%	1	8		+0.7

Defense D.Lloyd 2 INT, A.Armstead 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 2/3 FG (long 44)

49ers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
B.Purdy100%	22/38	309	2	2	1	+3.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
C.McCaffrey85%	17	71%	49	-4.3
B.Robinson15%	5	21%	21	+0.2
B.Purdy100%	2	8%	13	+1.4

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
C.McCaffrey85%	11	30%	6	92	1	-0.4
J.Tonges68%	5	14%	3	58	1	+4.3
R.Pearsall56%	5	14%	4	46		+5.7
K.Bourne67%	4	11%	1	17		-0.1
J.Jennings73%	4	11%	2	24		-2.0
K.Juszczyk35%	3	8%	3	32		+2.0
D.Robinson38%	2	5%	1	20		-1.5
L.Farrell48%	2	5%	2	20		-3.7
S.Moore12%	1	3%	0	0		-0.8

Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking E.Pineiro 2/2 FG (long 26)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Clean pockets

Jaguars take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (17th). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

49ers give up 53 yards a game to tight ends (17th), against a league average of 53. Jaguars' tight ends produce 44 (23rd).

Wash

Yards per play

Call this one even. Jaguars gain 5.4 yards per play (15th). 49ers give up 5.6 (21st), with the league at 5.4.

The series · Jaguars and 49ers since 1999, and this season's records8 meetings

The 49ers lead the series 5–3 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.

Jaguars at home2–2the Jaguars' record

In San Francisco1–2the Jaguars' record

Most pointsJaguars 41 · 49ers 441999 · 2017

Biggest winJaguars by 38 · 49ers by 321999 · 2013

The last 5

2025 · Wk 4	JAX 26 at SF 21
2023 · Wk 10	SF 34 at JAX 3
2021 · Wk 11	SF 30 at JAX 10
2017 · Wk 16	JAX 33 at SF 44
2013 · Wk 8	SF 42 at JAX 10

2025 records

	Jaguars	49ers
Overall	13–4	12–5
Division	5–1	4–2
Conference	10–2	9–3
Other conference	3–2	3–2
Home	7–2	5–3
Away	6–2	7–2
Last 5	WWWWW	WWWWL
Streak	Won 8	Lost 1
Points a game	27.9 – 19.8	25.7 – 21.8

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · JAX offense against SF defense

Stat	JAX off	SF def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.03#13	+0.07#24	+0.01
Success rate	45%#13	49%#30	44%
Yards per play	5.4#15	5.6#21	5.4
Explosive play rate	10%#12	8%#4	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.06#11	+0.11#25	+0.01
Sack rate	7%#17	4%#32	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.04#14	-0.02#23	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.0#23	4.4#22	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	41%#14	41%#18	40%
Red zone TD rate	64%#9	59%#20	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	164#6	144#19	140
TE yards per game	44#23	53#17	53
TE targets per game	6.1#23	8.1#23	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	27#23	35#23	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Jaguars: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.4711% of throws

+0.374% of throws

+0.207% of throws

Short

+0.0731% of throws

+0.0418% of throws

+0.2229% of throws

49ers: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.5158 throws

+1.2922 throws

+0.2649 throws