2025
Week 7 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Broncos offensevsGiants defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Broncos, 17 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 33–32 from as low as 1% (Q4 5:19, down 26–8). The game turned for good at Q4 0:18: B.Nix pass deep left to C.Sutton to NYG 21 for 22 yards (D.Banks) (48% → 68%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:49, 38 points for the Giants.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:49NYGJ.Dart pass incomplete deep right to B.Collins. PENALTY on DEN-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at DEN 40 - No Play.…38% → 76%
- 2Q4 0:02DENW.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD65% → 100%
- 3Q4 1:08NYGJ.Dart pass deep left to W.Robinson to NYG 45 for 19 yards (J.McMillian). PENALTY on DEN-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced…13% → 45%
- 4Q4 2:14DENB.Nix pass deep right to M.Mims pushed ob at NYG 38 for 31 yards (A.Phillips).27% → 51%
- 5Q4 0:18DENB.Nix pass deep left to C.Sutton to NYG 21 for 22 yards (D.Banks).turning point48% → 68%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Dart led the Giants at +10.0 EPA (15 of 33 for 283). B.Nix led the Broncos at +6.7 EPA (27 of 50 for 279).
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dart100% | 15/33 | 283 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +8.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Skattebo60% | 16 | 50% | 60 | -2.8 | |
| T.Jr.36% | 9 | 28% | 46 | 1 | +2.0 |
| J.Dart100% | 5 | 16% | 11 | 1 | +1.6 |
| D.Singletary4% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson91% | 12 | 36% | 6 | 95 | +4.3 | |
| T.Johnson88% | 7 | 21% | 3 | 66 | 1 | +1.2 |
| C.Skattebo60% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 34 | 1 | +1.5 |
| D.Bellinger68% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 88 | 1 | +7.2 |
| L.Humphrey96% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| J.Hyatt32% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.2 | |
| B.Collins8% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Defense B.Burns 2 sacks
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 27/50 | 279 | 2 | 2 | -1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins49% | 14 | 58% | 81 | +1.5 | |
| B.Nix100% | 5 | 21% | 48 | 2 | +8.1 |
| R.Harvey25% | 4 | 17% | 0 | -2.7 | |
| M.Jr.53% | 1 | 4% | 13 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton94% | 10 | 20% | 6 | 87 | +0.7 | |
| T.Franklin62% | 10 | 20% | 3 | 19 | 1 | -3.2 |
| E.Engram56% | 8 | 16% | 5 | 42 | -0.9 | |
| M.Jr.53% | 7 | 14% | 6 | 85 | +3.6 | |
| P.Bryant51% | 4 | 8% | 1 | 6 | -1.7 | |
| N.Adkins32% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 20 | -0.5 | |
| T.Badie26% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 19 | +2.5 | |
| R.Harvey25% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1.0 |
| G.Bolles | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| J.Dobbins49% | 1 | 2% | 1 | -1 | -0.5 | |
| A.Prentice9% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense J.Strnad 1 INT, J.Cooper 1.5 sacks, D.Tillman 1 sack, Z.Allen 0.5 sacks · Kicking W.Lutz 1/1 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Broncos take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (1st). Giants get home on 7% (17th). League average is 7%.
Deep left is open
Giants are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.69 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Giants give up 47 yards a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 53. Broncos' tight ends produce 39 (28th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Broncos succeed on 43% of plays (17th) against a defense that allows 47% (26th).
The Broncos lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | NYG 32 at DEN 33 |
| 2021 · Wk 1 | DEN 27 at NYG 13 |
| 2017 · Wk 6 | NYG 23 at DEN 10 |
| 2013 · Wk 2 | DEN 41 at NYG 23 |
| 2009 · Wk 12 | NYG 6 at DEN 26 |
2025 records
| Giants | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–13 | 14–3 |
| Division | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 3–5 | 8–1 |
| Away | 1–8 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | WWLWW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.8 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors NYG | NYG def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#14 | +0.08#25 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#17 | 47%#26 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#17 | 6.0#29 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#20 | 12%#32 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#12 | +0.02#16 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#1 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#19 | +0.13#32 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#18 | 5.4#32 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#11 | 40%#14 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#16 | 63%#23 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 153#12 | 152#23 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 39#28 | 47#10 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#18 | 6.7#9 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#8 | 31#19 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Giants: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.