2025
Week 8 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsTitans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 17 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Colts won 38–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 87%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 11:59, 5 points for the Titans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 11:59TEND.Jones pass short left to A.Dulin to TEN 26 for -8 yards (C.Barton).5% → 9%
- 2Q1 0:15INDJ.Taylor right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.91% → 95%
- 3Q1 13:27INDD.Jones pass deep middle to J.Downs to TEN 29 for 18 yards (X.Woods).92% → 96%
- 4Q2 0:01TEND.Jones pass incomplete short right.3% → 6%
- 5Q1 5:17TENJ.Hekker punts 48 yards to IND 7 A.Gould pushed ob at IND 27 for 20 yards (J.Hekker).8% → 11%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Spears led the Titans at +7.4 EPA (9 carries for 59). D.Jones led the Colts at +13.6 EPA (21 of 29 for 272).
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 22/38 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard46% | 11 | 44% | 44 | -2.5 | |
| T.Spears52% | 9 | 36% | 59 | 1 | +6.6 |
| J.Chestnut3% | 2 | 8% | 5 | -0.4 | |
| C.Ward100% | 2 | 8% | 4 | -0.6 | |
| C.Dike89% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V.Jefferson79% | 8 | 22% | 1 | 6 | -6.8 | |
| E.Ayomanor94% | 8 | 22% | 4 | 52 | -3.1 | |
| C.Dike89% | 8 | 22% | 7 | 93 | +4.3 | |
| C.Okonkwo62% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 53 | +3.5 | |
| T.Spears52% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 23 | +0.7 | |
| G.Helm52% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 23 | 1 | +1.5 |
| T.Pollard46% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 9 | -0.3 |
Defense D.Jones 1 sack, R.McCreary 1 sack, T.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking J.Slye 0/1 FG
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones89% | 21/29 | 272 | 3 | 3 | +13.8 | |
| R.Leonard11% | 0/2 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor75% | 12 | 67% | 153 | 2 | +10.8 |
| A.Abdullah19% | 2 | 11% | 5 | -0.9 | |
| T.Goodson8% | 2 | 11% | 2 | -1.0 | |
| D.Jones89% | 1 | 6% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| R.Leonard11% | 1 | 6% | 1 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Pittman79% | 9 | 32% | 8 | 95 | 1 | +7.2 |
| A.Pierce81% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 69 | +3.4 | |
| T.Warren74% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 53 | +2.8 | |
| J.Downs64% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 39 | 1 | +5.7 |
| J.Taylor75% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 21 | 1 | +1.7 |
| A.Abdullah19% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 | |
| A.Dulin25% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -8 | -1.6 | |
| A.Ogletree21% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| A.Mitchell17% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense C.Lammons 1 INT, D.Buckner 1 sack, N.Gallimore 1 sack, A.Adebawore 1 sack · Kicking M.Badgley 1/1 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Colts score a touchdown on 68% of red zone trips (3rd). Titans allow 67% (31st).
Deep middle is open
Titans are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Colts send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Titans give up 27 yards a game to running backs (7th), against a league average of 32. Colts' running backs produce 29 (18th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Colts create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (19th). Titans give them up at 11% (22nd).
The Colts lead the series 34–16 since 1999. Oct 18, 2026, at Lucas Oil Stadium: the Titans won 26–20. Daniel Jones started at quarterback for the Colts and Cam Ward for the Titans; Shane Steichen and Robert Saleh coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | TEN 26 at IND 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 8 | TEN 14 at IND 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | IND 41 at TEN 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | TEN 30 at IND 38 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | IND 20 at TEN 17 |
2025 records
| Titans | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 8–9 |
| Division | 0–6 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 1–8 | 6–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 16.7 – 28.1 | 27.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Titans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors TEN | TEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | +0.10#28 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 45%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 6.0#28 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 11%#22 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | +0.17#29 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.02#22 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 4.2#18 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 42%#19 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 67%#31 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 166#28 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 56#21 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 7.1#15 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 27#7 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Titans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.