2025
Week 9 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 17 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 28–6 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 9:46, 11 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:46MIAT.Tagovailoa pass short right to T.Washington to MIA 18 for 11 yards (A.Gilman; T.Buchanan). FUMBLES (A.Gilman), RECOVERED by BAL-A.Gilman at MIA…74% → 85%
- 2Q1 5:38MIAD.D.Achane right tackle pushed ob at BAL 21 for 22 yards (M.Humphrey).16% → 23%
- 3Q2 1:08MIAT.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to D.Achane.85% → 91%
- 4Q1 13:34MIAD.T.Tagovailoa pass short left to D.Achane to BAL 33 for 5 yards (M.Starks).71% → 75%
- 5Q1 0:03BALL.Jackson pass short right to I.Likely pushed ob at MIA 23 for 35 yards (D.Trader).87% → 92%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
L.Jackson led the Ravens at +9.4 EPA (18 of 23 for 204). J.Waddle led the Dolphins at +7.3 EPA (6 catches for 82).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson100% | 18/23 | 204 | 4 | 2 | +10.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry64% | 19 | 61% | 119 | +0.1 | |
| L.Jackson100% | 5 | 16% | 14 | -1.0 | |
| K.Mitchell18% | 4 | 13% | 11 | -0.8 | |
| M.Andrews50% | 2 | 6% | 4 | +1.3 | |
| J.Hill20% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers82% | 5 | 22% | 5 | 64 | +3.8 | |
| R.Bateman71% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 13 | 1 | -2.3 |
| I.Likely59% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 60 | +3.0 | |
| M.Andrews50% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 22 | 2 | +6.6 |
| J.Hill20% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 13 | +1.0 | |
| C.Kolar46% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 23 | 1 | +3.1 |
| D.Hopkins32% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| D.Henry64% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| K.Mitchell18% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 |
Defense M.Starks 1 INT, B.Urban 0.5 sacks, T.Jones 0.5 sacks, D.Ojabo 0.5 sacks
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 25/40 | 261 | 1 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane91% | 14 | 70% | 67 | -2.5 | |
| M.Washington70% | 3 | 15% | 13 | -5.1 | |
| O.II20% | 2 | 10% | 6 | -0.5 | |
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane91% | 10 | 27% | 6 | 39 | -5.2 | |
| J.Waddle80% | 9 | 24% | 6 | 82 | +7.3 | |
| G.Dulcich36% | 5 | 14% | 5 | 49 | +3.2 | |
| N.Westbrook-Ikhine67% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 22 | -0.4 | |
| M.Washington70% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 48 | +3.6 | |
| T.Washington14% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 11 | -6.2 | |
| C.Jr.22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +2.4 | |
| D.Eskridge12% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| T.Conner45% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| O.II20% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 |
Defense B.Jones 1 sack, J.Phillips 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 2/3 FG (long 49)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Ravens give up 43 yards a game to running backs (30th), against a league average of 32. Dolphins' running backs produce 36 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.82 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Dolphins score a touchdown on 56% of red zone trips (23rd). Ravens allow 53% (5th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Dolphins average -0.02 EPA per play (21st). Ravens allow +0.03 (20th). League average is +0.01.
The Ravens lead the series 12–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 9 | BAL 28 at MIA 6 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | MIA 19 at BAL 56 |
| 2022 · Wk 2 | MIA 42 at BAL 38 |
| 2021 · Wk 10 | BAL 10 at MIA 22 |
| 2019 · Wk 1 | BAL 59 at MIA 10 |
2025 records
| Ravens | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Home | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LWLWL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 24.9 – 23.4 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#21 | +0.03#20 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#26 | 44%#17 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.6#22 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 10%#21 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#18 | +0.08#21 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 5%#31 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#9 | -0.09#11 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#3 | 4.1#16 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#26 | 39%#11 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#23 | 53%#5 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 110#26 | 168#30 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 50#19 | 47#9 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#25 | 6.6#8 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#9 | 43#30 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.