2026
Week 7 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Ford Field
vs
Lions offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Lions, 8 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 20–17; their low point was 31% at Q4 4:50. The game turned for good at Q4 3:25: T.Smack 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (D.Wonnum) (43% → 59%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:53, 20 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:53GBJ.Gibbs up the middle to DET 22 for -2 yards (K.Nixon).48% → 69%
- 2Q4 3:25DETT.Smack 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (D.Wonnum)turning point43% → 59%
- 3Q4 2:45DETJ.Goff pass short middle to S.LaPorta to DET 45 for 18 yards (X.McKinney; I.McDuffie). PENALTY on GB-K.Brooks, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards,…56% → 71%
- 4Q3 12:22GBJ.Love pass short left to J.Jacobs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.42% → 55%
- 5Q3 14:16GBJ.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 41, touched at DET 41, RECOVERED by GB-I.McDuffie at DET 42.28% → 39%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Love led the Packers at +6.9 EPA (27 of 45 for 274). A.Brown led the Lions at +8.0 EPA (9 catches for 153).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 27/45 | 274 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs52% | 11 | 58% | 36 | -1.7 | |
| M.Lloyd36% | 6 | 32% | 20 | -2.0 | |
| S.Williams60% | 2 | 11% | 4 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Golden85% | 12 | 29% | 6 | 39 | -8.0 | |
| C.Watson81% | 8 | 19% | 5 | 57 | +5.0 | |
| J.Jacobs52% | 7 | 17% | 5 | 55 | 1 | +3.9 |
| T.Kraft88% | 6 | 14% | 4 | 48 | 1 | +6.7 |
| S.Williams60% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 47 | +6.1 | |
| B.Melton19% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 4 | -0.8 | |
| M.Lloyd36% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 15 | -0.8 | |
| J.Smith25% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 9 | +1.2 | |
| M.Redman25% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense A.Campbell 1 sack · Kicking T.Smack 1/3 FG (long 43)
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 22/32 | 303 | 2 | 1 | +9.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs90% | 29 | 88% | 116 | -6.6 | |
| J.Goff100% | 2 | 6% | -1 | -8.1 | |
| A.Brown78% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -0.9 | |
| S.Vaki13% | 1 | 3% | 5 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown78% | 11 | 35% | 9 | 153 | +8.9 | |
| J.Williams84% | 9 | 29% | 5 | 91 | 2 | +2.5 |
| J.Gibbs90% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 27 | -2.4 | |
| S.LaPorta97% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 18 | +1.5 | |
| I.TeSlaa49% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 10 | +1.7 | |
| T.Conklin12% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.6 |
Defense B.Branch 1 INT, A.Hutchinson 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 2/2 FG (long 40)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Packers give up 152 yards a game to wide receivers (22nd), against a league average of 147. Lions' wide receivers produce 173 (7th).
Deep left is open
Packers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.61 EPA per attempt. Lions send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Packers give up 6.1 targets a game to tight ends (4th), against a league average of 7.6. Lions' tight ends produce 7.6 (15th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Lions create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (3rd). Packers give them up at 6% (3rd).
The Packers lead the series 36–19 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | GB 17 at DET 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | GB 31 at DET 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | DET 13 at GB 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | GB 31 at DET 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | DET 24 at GB 14 |
2026 records
| Packers | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 4–3 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Home | 3–1 | 4–0 |
| Away | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 20.5 | 29.0 – 25.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#6 | -0.07#7 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#3 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#7 | 4.8#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 6%#3 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.25#2 | -0.06#5 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#13 | -0.10#11 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#6 | 3.9#14 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 44%#23 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#5 | 60%#13 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 173#7 | 152#22 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#14 | 35#3 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#15 | 6.1#4 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#5 | 34#19 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.