2025
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Colts won 33–8 and were favored the whole way, never below 52%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 14:23, 8 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:23MIAT.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 38 for -6 yards (K.Moore). FUMBLES (K.Moore) [K.Moore], RECOVERED by IND-X.Howard at MIA 44. X.Howard to MIA 42 for 2…75% → 83%
- 2Q2 15:00INDD.Jones pass deep right to M.Pittman for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 76%
- 3Q1 13:34INDD.Jones pass short left to M.Pittman pushed ob at MIA 32 for 14 yards (J.Jones).57% → 61%
- 4Q1 12:52INDD.Jones pass deep left to T.Warren to MIA 11 for 21 yards (S.Duck; M.Fitzpatrick).61% → 65%
- 5Q1 3:04INDD.Jones pass short right to J.Taylor to MIA 29 for 16 yards (J.Jones).66% → 70%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Achane led the Dolphins at +5.8 EPA (7 carries for 55). D.Jones led the Colts at +16.8 EPA (22 of 29 for 272).
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa81% | 14/23 | 114 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -14.4 |
| Z.Wilson19% | 5/8 | 32 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane73% | 7 | 58% | 55 | +2.7 | |
| O.II25% | 2 | 17% | 4 | +0.2 | |
| T.Tagovailoa81% | 1 | 8% | 7 | +0.4 | |
| Z.Wilson19% | 1 | 8% | 3 | -0.2 | |
| M.Washington58% | 1 | 8% | 9 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Hill62% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 40 | -0.8 | |
| J.Waddle65% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 30 | -0.5 | |
| M.Washington58% | 5 | 16% | 2 | 20 | -4.1 | |
| T.Conner58% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 20 | -2.7 | |
| D.Achane73% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 20 | 1 | +3.1 |
| A.Ingold27% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |
| N.Westbrook-Ikhine44% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 7 | +0.3 | |
| D.Eskridge27% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| O.II25% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1 | -3.4 |
Defense B.Chubb 1 sack
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 22/29 | 272 | 1 | 1 | +13.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor71% | 18 | 45% | 71 | -0.4 | |
| D.Giddens25% | 12 | 30% | 41 | +1.0 | |
| D.Jones100% | 7 | 18% | 26 | 2 | +3.8 |
| A.Dulin14% | 1 | 3% | 15 | +1.5 | |
| T.Warren73% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +0.5 | |
| U.IV3% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Warren73% | 9 | 31% | 7 | 76 | +1.2 | |
| M.Pittman82% | 8 | 28% | 6 | 80 | 1 | +6.9 |
| J.Taylor71% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 27 | +3.1 | |
| A.Pierce79% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 36 | +1.0 | |
| J.Downs49% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 12 | +0.4 | |
| A.Mitchell21% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 21 | +0.7 | |
| M.Alie-Cox45% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 20 | +1.4 |
Defense C.Bynum 1 INT, L.Latu 1 INT, K.II 1 sack, S.Ebukam 1 sack · Kicking S.Shrader 4/4 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Colts score a touchdown on 68% of red zone trips (3rd). Dolphins allow 65% (26th).
Deep middle is open
Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Colts send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Dolphins give up 127 yards a game to wide receivers (9th), against a league average of 140. Colts' wide receivers produce 154 (11th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Colts create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (19th). Dolphins give them up at 11% (25th).
The Colts lead the series 11–8 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 1 | MIA 8 at IND 33 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | MIA 10 at IND 16 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | IND 27 at MIA 17 |
| 2019 · Wk 10 | MIA 16 at IND 12 |
| 2018 · Wk 12 | MIA 24 at IND 27 |
2025 records
| Dolphins | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–10 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–4 | 6–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 20.4 – 24.9 | 27.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | +0.09#26 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 48%#29 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 5.9#26 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 11%#25 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | +0.13#26 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.03#20 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 4.6#25 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 41%#17 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 65%#26 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 127#9 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 66#29 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 8.2#25 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 37#25 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.