2025
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium
vs
Jaguars offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 26–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 57%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 12:52, 13 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:52JAXB.Young pass short right intended for X.Legette INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun (E.Murray) at CAR 35. F.Oluokun to CAR 35 for no gain (J.Sanders). The…57% → 70%
- 2Q1 12:03JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to B.Strange to CAR 35 for 24 yards (Ja.Horn; L.Ransom). Penalty on CAR-T.Wharton, Defensive Offside, declined.62% → 72%
- 3Q2 3:39JAXT.Etienne up the middle to CAR 20 for 71 yards (C.Rozeboom).81% → 89%
- 4Q1 2:58CARB.Young pass short left to T.McMillan to JAX 35 for 11 yards (T.Campbell) [E.Murray].35% → 42%
- 5Q2 5:29CARB.Young scrambles left end ran ob at JAX 41 for 22 yards (A.Wingard).23% → 29%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.McMillan led the Panthers at +1.7 EPA (5 catches for 68). B.Strange led the Jaguars at +7.0 EPA (4 catches for 59).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 18/35 | 154 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -15.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard67% | 16 | 64% | 57 | -1.7 | |
| B.Young100% | 5 | 20% | 40 | +1.9 | |
| R.Dowdle34% | 3 | 12% | 12 | -0.1 | |
| T.Etienne3% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McMillan83% | 9 | 26% | 5 | 68 | +1.7 | |
| X.Legette78% | 7 | 21% | 3 | 10 | -10.3 | |
| H.Renfrow66% | 6 | 18% | 2 | 11 | -1.7 | |
| C.Hubbard67% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +1.4 |
| R.Dowdle34% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 4 | -3.7 | |
| J.Sanders61% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 27 | +1.1 | |
| T.Tremble45% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.2 |
Defense J.Horn 1 INT · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 1/1 FG (long 48)
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 19/31 | 178 | 1 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne61% | 16 | 50% | 143 | +1.7 | |
| T.Bigsby21% | 5 | 16% | 12 | -0.3 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 4 | 13% | 12 | +0.6 | |
| B.Tuten6% | 3 | 9% | 11 | -0.9 | |
| D.Brown71% | 2 | 6% | 6 | +1.9 | |
| B.Jr.86% | 1 | 3% | 9 | 1 | +2.5 |
| L.Jr.14% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Hunter64% | 8 | 28% | 6 | 33 | -5.2 | |
| B.Jr.86% | 7 | 24% | 1 | 11 | -4.3 | |
| D.Brown71% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 52 | +4.9 | |
| B.Strange79% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 59 | +7.0 | |
| T.Etienne61% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 13 | +0.1 | |
| J.Mundt50% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| H.Long9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | 1 | +2.0 |
| L.Jr.14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 |
Defense J.Lewis 1 INT, F.Oluokun 1 INT, D.Smoot 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 4/4 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Jaguars
Jaguars convert 41% of third downs (14th). Panthers allow 47% (30th).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 11% of their throws there.
Tight ends go quiet
Panthers give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (11th), against a league average of 7.3. Jaguars' tight ends produce 6.1 (23rd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Jaguars create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (12th). Panthers give them up at 9% (10th).
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999. The Jaguars have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 1 | CAR 10 at JAX 26 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | CAR 0 at JAX 26 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | JAX 27 at CAR 34 |
| 2015 · Wk 1 | CAR 20 at JAX 9 |
| 2011 · Wk 3 | JAX 10 at CAR 16 |
2025 records
| Panthers | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 13–4 |
| Division | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 7–2 |
| Away | 3–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 8 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 27.9 – 19.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.