2025
Week 10 · Sunday 9:30 AM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 17 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Colts won 31–25 from as low as 22% (Q4 1:27, down 25–22). Tied 25–25 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 3:36: J.Taylor right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The biggest single swing came at Q4 6:16, 27 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:16INDJ.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.57% → 84%
- 2Q4 1:17INDD.Jones pass short left to T.Warren ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (X.Watts).31% → 50%
- 3Q3 10:28INDD.Jones sacked at ATL 35 for -12 yards (J.Pearce). FUMBLES (J.Pearce) [J.Pearce], touched at ATL 41, RECOVERED by ATL-J.Walker at ATL 44. J.Walker…40% → 58%
- 4Q4 1:32INDD.Jones sacked at IND 41 for -11 yards (A.Ebiketie).61% → 78%
- 5Q4 1:07INDD.Jones sacked at ATL 36 for -6 yards (R.Harrison).53% → 68%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
D.London led the Falcons at +7.8 EPA (6 catches for 104). J.Taylor led the Colts at +11.1 EPA (32 carries for 244).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 12/28 | 177 | 1 | 3 | -8.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson86% | 17 | 59% | 84 | +0.2 | |
| T.Allgeier37% | 11 | 38% | 57 | 2 | +3.8 |
| M.Jr.100% | 1 | 3% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Mooney90% | 8 | 32% | 1 | 17 | -3.3 | |
| D.London98% | 8 | 32% | 6 | 104 | 1 | +7.8 |
| K.Pitts92% | 5 | 20% | 2 | 38 | +0.6 | |
| B.Robinson86% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| D.Sills49% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| C.Woerner40% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 14 | +1.2 |
Defense J.Bates 1 INT, R.Harrison 1 sack, K.Elliss 1 sack, A.Ebiketie 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 1/1 FG (long 43)
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 19/26 | 255 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -2.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor91% | 32 | 78% | 244 | 3 | +9.5 |
| D.Jones100% | 7 | 17% | 53 | +2.1 | |
| A.Dulin19% | 1 | 2% | 22 | +1.9 | |
| T.Goodson3% | 1 | 2% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Warren88% | 10 | 38% | 8 | 99 | +7.8 | |
| A.Pierce95% | 7 | 27% | 4 | 84 | 1 | +5.9 |
| J.Taylor91% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 42 | +1.7 | |
| M.Pittman81% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 19 | +1.1 | |
| J.Downs47% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 3 | -3.7 | |
| A.Abdullah6% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.1 | |
| M.Alie-Cox45% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Defense Z.Franklin 1 sack, C.Bynum 1 sack, N.Cross 1 sack · Kicking M.Badgley 2/3 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Falcons take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (5th). Colts get home on 6% (25th). League average is 7%.
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.86 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Falcons' run game is 20th in EPA per carry (-0.06). Colts allow -0.09 (8th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Falcons create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (14th). Colts give them up at 9% (14th).
The Colts lead the series 6–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 · OT | ATL 25 at IND 31 |
| 2023 · Wk 16 | IND 10 at ATL 29 |
| 2019 · Wk 3 | ATL 24 at IND 27 |
| 2015 · Wk 11 | IND 24 at ATL 21 |
| 2011 · Wk 9 | ATL 31 at IND 7 |
2025 records
| Falcons | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Away | 4–5 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 4 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 20.8 – 23.6 | 27.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#23 | +0.00#16 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#16 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#13 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#14 | 9%#14 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | +0.04#18 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#5 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#20 | -0.09#8 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#7 | 3.8#5 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#30 | 44%#25 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#10 | 56%#12 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#28 | 168#31 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#11 | 70#31 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#14 | 8.4#29 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 54#2 | 24#4 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.