2025
Week 10 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · FedExField
vs
Commanders offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Lions won 44–22 and were favored the whole way, never below 75%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 9:55, 4 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:55DETJ.Goff pass short right to J.Williams to WAS 21 for 14 yards (T.Amos).83% → 87%
- 2Q1 14:57WASC.Rodriguez right tackle to WAS 31 for 5 yards (A.Anzalone).76% → 80%
- 3Q1 14:23WASC.Rodriguez up the middle to WAS 33 for 2 yards (B.Branch).20% → 24%
- 4Q1 13:45WASM.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to Z.Ertz [A.Anzalone].76% → 79%
- 5Q1 11:21DETJ.Goff pass short right to J.Gibbs to WAS 39 for 8 yards (B.Wagner).81% → 83%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Goff led the Lions at +25.3 EPA (25 of 33 for 320). M.Mariota led the Commanders at +11.6 EPA (16 of 22 for 213).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff87% | 25/33 | 320 | 3 | +25.3 | ||
| K.Allen13% | 0/2 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Montgomery54% | 15 | 45% | 71 | -0.1 | |
| J.Gibbs50% | 15 | 45% | 142 | 2 | +9.5 |
| K.Raymond54% | 1 | 3% | 10 | +0.9 | |
| K.Allen13% | 1 | 3% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| S.Vaki1% | 1 | 3% | 4 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown77% | 8 | 25% | 5 | 58 | 1 | +4.1 |
| J.Williams87% | 7 | 22% | 6 | 119 | 1 | +10.3 |
| S.LaPorta76% | 5 | 16% | 5 | 53 | +5.8 | |
| K.Raymond54% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 49 | +4.3 | |
| J.Gibbs50% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 30 | 1 | +2.6 |
| R.Dwelley16% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| D.Montgomery54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| B.Wright39% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| I.TeSlaa29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.8 |
Defense B.Branch 1.5 sacks, R.Lopez 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Bates 3/3 FG (long 48)
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota94% | 16/22 | 213 | 2 | 2 | +10.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt44% | 11 | 41% | 30 | -4.2 | |
| C.Jr.33% | 6 | 22% | 16 | 1 | +0.3 |
| M.Mariota94% | 5 | 19% | 22 | +0.6 | |
| J.McNichols31% | 5 | 19% | 25 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Ertz81% | 5 | 23% | 4 | 54 | +2.9 | |
| D.Sr.78% | 5 | 23% | 4 | 29 | 1 | +4.5 |
| R.Chosen28% | 4 | 18% | 1 | 17 | -1.7 | |
| T.Burks39% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 58 | +4.0 | |
| J.Bates70% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 6 | -0.2 | |
| J.McNichols31% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 | |
| B.Sinnott39% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1.6 |
| J.Lane28% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 41 | +3.1 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking M.Gay 1/1 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Commanders average 4.5 yards per carry (9th). Lions allow 4.4 (24th).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Lions give up 25 yards a game to running backs (5th), against a league average of 32. Commanders' running backs produce 20 (31st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Commanders succeed on 46% of plays (9th) against a defense that allows 42% (9th).
The Lions lead the series 9–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | DET 44 at WAS 22 |
| 2024 · Wk 20 · playoffs | WAS 45 at DET 31 |
| 2022 · Wk 2 | WAS 27 at DET 36 |
| 2020 · Wk 10 | WAS 27 at DET 30 |
| 2019 · Wk 12 | DET 16 at WAS 19 |
2025 records
| Lions | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 5–12 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Away | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WLLLW | LWLLW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 24.3 | 20.9 – 26.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.