2025
Week 10 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Raiders offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Raiders, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 10–7; their low point was 49% at Q2 7:26. The game turned for good at Q2 7:26: B.Bowers right end to DEN 47 for -4 yards (N.Bonitto) (49% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:30, 18 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:30DEND.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right71% → 89%
- 2Q3 5:34DENG.Smith pass short middle intended for A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by D.Tillman at DEN 44. D.Tillman to LV 33 for 23 yards (M.Mayer).60% → 75%
- 3Q4 7:16LVB.Nix pass deep left intended for T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by K.Kelly at DEN 45. K.Kelly to DEN 45 for no gain (T.Franklin).17% → 31%
- 4Q2 4:10DENB.Nix pass deep right to P.Bryant pushed ob at LV 5 for 43 yards (L.Johnson).59% → 73%
- 5Q2 6:03DENG.Smith sacked at DEN 47 for -9 yards (T.Hufanga).51% → 63%
- ★Q2 7:26DENB.Bowers right end to DEN 47 for -4 yards (N.Bonitto).turning point49% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Lockett led the Raiders at +1.6 EPA (5 catches for 44). P.Bryant led the Broncos at +3.1 EPA (1 catches for 43).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith97% | 16/26 | 143 | 1 | 6 | -16.3 | |
| K.Pickett3% | 0/1 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty87% | 19 | 76% | 60 | 1 | -2.6 |
| G.Smith97% | 3 | 12% | 7 | -1.2 | |
| R.Mostert13% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.6 | |
| T.Tucker100% | 1 | 4% | 7 | +0.5 | |
| B.Bowers83% | 1 | 4% | -4 | -1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lockett57% | 6 | 24% | 5 | 44 | +1.6 | |
| A.Jeanty87% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 3 | -7.0 | |
| M.Mayer62% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 22 | -1.0 | |
| T.Tucker100% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 28 | +0.7 | |
| B.Bowers83% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 31 | +1.6 | |
| D.Jr.62% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 4 | -0.5 | |
| R.Mostert13% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +2.1 | |
| J.Bech23% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense K.Kelly 2 INT, A.Butler 1 sack, C.Snowden 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 0/1 FG
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 16/28 | 150 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -6.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins52% | 18 | 67% | 77 | -0.7 | |
| B.Nix100% | 5 | 19% | -2 | -4.9 | |
| R.Harvey28% | 4 | 15% | 9 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Franklin74% | 9 | 33% | 5 | 40 | 1 | -2.2 |
| E.Engram44% | 5 | 19% | 2 | 12 | -3.1 | |
| C.Sutton87% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 24 | +0.6 | |
| R.Harvey28% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 9 | -1.1 | |
| P.Bryant49% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 43 | +3.1 | |
| J.Dobbins52% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.5 | |
| A.Trautman69% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -1.3 | |
| A.Prentice16% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| T.Badie21% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Defense N.Bonitto 1.5 sacks, D.Tillman 1 INT, Z.Allen 1 sack, M.Roach 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 1/2 FG (long 32)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 7.3. Raiders' tight ends produce 9.2 (3rd).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Raiders send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Raiders take a sack on 11% of dropbacks (32nd). Broncos get home on 11% (1st). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Raiders average -0.22 EPA per play (32nd). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Broncos lead the series 31–23 since 1999. They have won the last 4. Dec 7, 2025, at Allegiant Stadium: the Broncos won 24–17. Geno Smith started at quarterback for the Raiders and Bo Nix for the Broncos; Pete Carroll and Sean Payton coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 14 | DEN 24 at LV 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | LV 7 at DEN 10 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | DEN 29 at LV 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | LV 18 at DEN 34 |
| 2023 · Wk 18 | DEN 14 at LV 27 |
2025 records
| Raiders | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 14–3 |
| Division | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 5–0 |
| Home | 2–7 | 8–1 |
| Away | 1–7 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WWLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 14.2 – 25.4 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LV off | Favors LV · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.22#32 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 38%#30 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#31 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#31 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#29 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#32 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.30#32 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#32 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#28 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#28 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 100#30 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 68#5 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.2#3 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#21 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Raiders: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.