2025
Week 10 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
Rams offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 42–26 and were favored the whole way, never below 72%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 12:36, 5 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 12:36SFM.Jones pass short left to L.Farrell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.5% → 11%
- 2Q3 9:37SFB.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 13%
- 3Q1 14:47LAM.Stafford pass short left to D.Adams to LA 48 for 12 yards (T.Bethune; R.Green).72% → 75%
- 4Q1 10:53LAM.Stafford pass short right to D.Adams pushed ob at SF 2 for 13 yards (R.Green).80% → 83%
- 5Q1 7:02LAM.Stafford pass deep left to D.Adams to SF 36 for 23 yards (U.Stout; D.Lenoir). SF-T.Bethune was injured during the play.87% → 90%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Stafford led the Rams at +19.4 EPA (24 of 36 for 280). M.Jones led the 49ers at +18.6 EPA (33 of 39 for 319).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 24/36 | 280 | 4 | 1 | +22.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams58% | 14 | 47% | 73 | 2 | +3.4 |
| B.Corum39% | 13 | 43% | 56 | +0.2 | |
| M.Stafford100% | 3 | 10% | -3 | -3.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Adams51% | 8 | 24% | 6 | 77 | 1 | +5.9 |
| P.Nacua52% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 64 | 1 | +9.5 |
| C.Parkinson57% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 41 | 1 | +5.2 |
| T.Ferguson32% | 4 | 12% | 1 | 32 | 0.0 | |
| T.Higbee54% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 33 | +3.3 | |
| K.Williams58% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 11 | -0.1 | |
| D.Allen51% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 8 | 1 | +1.7 |
| K.Mumpfield48% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| X.Smith49% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +1.0 |
Defense E.Forbes 1 INT
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jones100% | 33/39 | 319 | 3 | 1 | +18.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey78% | 12 | 57% | 30 | -6.0 | |
| B.Robinson22% | 8 | 38% | 41 | 1 | +1.5 |
| M.Jones100% | 1 | 5% | 3 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey78% | 10 | 26% | 8 | 66 | +1.1 | |
| G.Kittle90% | 9 | 23% | 9 | 84 | 1 | +9.3 |
| J.Jennings92% | 9 | 23% | 6 | 71 | 1 | -3.6 |
| D.Robinson46% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 34 | +0.4 | |
| K.Juszczyk49% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 8 | +0.3 | |
| L.Farrell27% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 15 | 1 | +1.9 |
| K.Bourne68% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 19 | +1.3 | |
| B.Robinson22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 | |
| S.Moore17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 18 | +1.2 |
Defense K.Davis 0.5 sacks, K.White 0.5 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Rams take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (3rd). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Rams send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
49ers give up 35 yards a game to running backs (23rd), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 21 (30th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (6th). 49ers give them up at 8% (4th).
The 49ers lead the series 31–24–1 since 1999. Sep 10, 2026, at Melbourne Cricket Ground: the 49ers won 27–7. Matthew Stafford started at quarterback for the Rams and Brock Purdy for the 49ers; Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | SF 27 at LA 7 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | LA 42 at SF 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 5 · OT | SF 26 at LA 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | LA 12 at SF 6 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | SF 24 at LA 27 |
2025 records
| Rams | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 12–5 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 7–1 | 5–3 |
| Away | 5–4 | 7–2 |
| Last 5 | WWLLW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 30.5 – 20.4 | 25.7 – 21.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.