DOWN X DOWN › week 10 › Saints at Panthers

Season over · final

2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium

Saints offensevsPanthers defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

NO offense CAR offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · NO 17 · CAR 7

The Saints won 17–7 from as low as 17% (Q1 6:43, down 7⁠–⁠0). The Panthers had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 13:38: C.Hubbard left end pushed ob at CAR 45 for 5 yards (K.McKinstry; D.Stutsman) (49% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 9:31, 20 points for the Saints.

At kickoffCAR 71%CAR by 5.5 on the line

NO low point17%Q1 6:43 · down 7⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%7times the favorite changed

Biggest swing20 ptsNO · Q2 9:31

CAR wins50%NO wins

12345Turning pointNO low 17%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 9:31NOT.Shough pass deep right to C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.26% → 46%+20
2Q3 4:34NOB.Young FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 19, touched at NO 19, RECOVERED by NO-P.Werner at NO 17.35% → 56%+20
3Q4 13:00NOB.Young pass short right intended for T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by A.Taylor at NO 46. A.Taylor pushed ob at CAR 43 for 11 yards (T.McMillan).50% → 68%+18
4Q4 10:29NOT.Shough pass deep left to J.Johnson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.70% → 85%+15
5Q4 13:42CART.Shough sacked at CAR 40 for -8 yards (N.Scourton).39% → 51%+12
★Q4 13:38NOC.Hubbard left end pushed ob at CAR 45 for 5 yards (K.McKinstry; D.Stutsman).turning point49% → 50%+1

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 10

J.Johnson led the Saints at +9.9 EPA (4 catches for 92). J.Coker led the Panthers at +0.3 EPA (3 catches for 21).

Saints

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Shough82%	19/27	282	2		2	+11.8
T.Hill37%	0/1	0				-0.6

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
A.Kamara63%	22	59%	83	-2.3
T.Hill37%	7	19%	20	+1.5
D.Neal35%	4	11%	22	+0.3
T.Shough82%	4	11%	-3	-5.3

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
C.Olave54%	8	31%	5	104	1	+6.8
J.Johnson50%	4	15%	4	92	1	+9.9
A.Kamara63%	3	12%	3	32		+1.7
F.Moreau62%	3	12%	2	16		+1.3
D.Vele87%	3	12%	1	15		-1.0
D.Neal35%	3	12%	3	9		0.0
T.Hill37%	1	4%	0	0		-1.5
Z.Mitchell-Paden38%	1	4%	1	14		+1.6

Defense A.Taylor 1 INT, C.Jordan 1 sack, N.Shepherd 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 1/1 FG (long 20)

Panthers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
B.Young100%	17/25	124		1	2	-11.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
R.Dowdle79%	18	78%	53	1	-5.0
C.Hubbard21%	3	13%	14		-0.2
B.Young100%	2	9%	6		-4.3

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
T.McMillan91%	8	35%	5	60	-2.1
J.Sanders36%	5	22%	5	32	-0.7
J.Coker75%	4	17%	3	21	+0.3
R.Dowdle79%	3	13%	3	10	+0.3
C.Hubbard21%	1	4%	1	1	-2.8
X.Legette70%	1	4%	0	0	-1.6
M.Evans32%	1	4%	0	0	-0.7

Defense T.Wallace 1 sack, N.Scourton 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 0/1 FG

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Tight ends feast

Panthers give up 61 yards a game to tight ends (25th), against a league average of 53. Saints' tight ends produce 60 (9th).

Opportunity

Deep left is open

Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Saints send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Field goals, not touchdowns

Saints score a touchdown on 43% of red zone trips (32nd). Panthers allow 57% (14th).

Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Saints average -0.09 EPA per play (27th). Panthers allow +0.07 (23rd). League average is +0.01.

The series · Saints and Panthers since 1999, and this season's records55 meetings

The Saints lead the series 31–24 since 1999. They have won the last 2. Dec 14, 2025, at Mercedes-Benz Superdome: the Saints won 20–17. Tyler Shough started at quarterback for the Saints and Bryce Young for the Panthers; Kellen Moore and Dave Canales coached.

Saints at home16–12the Saints' record

In Carolina15–12the Saints' record

Most pointsSaints 47 · Panthers 452024 · 1999

Biggest winSaints by 37 · Panthers by 322024 · 1999

Playoffs1–0the Saints' record

The last 5

2025 · Wk 15	CAR 17 at NO 20
2025 · Wk 10	NO 17 at CAR 7
2024 · Wk 9	NO 22 at CAR 23
2024 · Wk 1	CAR 10 at NO 47
2023 · Wk 14	CAR 6 at NO 28

2025 records

	Saints	Panthers
Overall	6–11	8–9
Division	3–3	3–3
Conference	4–8	6–6
Other conference	2–3	2–3
Home	3–5	5–3
Away	3–6	3–6
Last 5	WWWWL	WLWLL
Streak	Lost 1	Lost 2
Points a game	18.0 – 22.5	18.3 – 22.4

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · NO offense against CAR defense

Stat	NO off	CAR def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.09#27	+0.07#23	+0.01
Success rate	42%#25	45%#19	44%
Yards per play	5.0#27	5.6#20	5.4
Explosive play rate	6%#32	9%#10	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.07#27	+0.11#24	+0.01
Sack rate	8%#22	5%#27	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.15#31	+0.01#27	-0.05
Yards per carry	3.5#31	4.4#21	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	40%#19	47%#30	40%
Red zone TD rate	43%#32	57%#14	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	146#15	130#13	140
TE yards per game	60#9	61#25	53
TE targets per game	7.4#15	6.7#11	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	25#24	29#13	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Saints: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.069% of throws

+1.372% of throws

+0.468% of throws

Short

-0.0927% of throws

+0.2818% of throws

-0.0735% of throws

Panthers: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.5744 throws

-0.1029 throws

+0.3033 throws