2025
Week 13 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium
vs
Browns offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Browns, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 26–8 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 10:40, 12 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:40CLEC.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to SF 18 S.Moore pushed ob at CLE 16 for 66 yards (B.Whiteheart).68% → 80%
- 2Q2 0:47CLES.Sanders pass deep left to H.Fannin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23% → 35%
- 3Q2 0:15SFB.Purdy pass deep left to G.Kittle to CLE 7 for 33 yards (R.Hickman).68% → 76%
- 4Q3 7:08CLET.Direct snap to H.Fannin. H.Fannin FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, RECOVERED by SF-L.Gifford at CLE 32.73% → 80%
- 5Q3 1:33SFB.Purdy left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.85% → 91%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Jennings led the 49ers at +5.5 EPA (4 catches for 39). J.Ford led the Browns at +1.5 EPA (0 carries for 0).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy94% | 16/29 | 168 | 1 | 1 | +3.4 | |
| C.McCaffrey79% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey79% | 20 | 61% | 53 | 1 | -1.4 |
| B.Robinson21% | 8 | 24% | 26 | -2.0 | |
| M.Jones6% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -0.8 | |
| B.Purdy94% | 2 | 6% | 4 | 1 | +1.0 |
| D.Robinson43% | 1 | 3% | 6 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jennings81% | 6 | 26% | 4 | 39 | 1 | +5.5 |
| G.Kittle87% | 5 | 22% | 4 | 67 | +2.4 | |
| C.McCaffrey79% | 4 | 17% | 4 | 21 | +2.6 | |
| R.Pearsall87% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 14 | -0.4 | |
| K.Juszczyk36% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 27 | +1.6 | |
| D.Robinson43% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| K.Bourne34% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| L.Farrell21% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense C.Ferrell 2 sacks, K.White 1 sack · Kicking M.Gay 2/2 FG (long 31)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Sanders97% | 16/25 | 149 | 1 | 3 | -3.9 | |
| D.Gabriel2% | 1/1 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins60% | 23 | 74% | 91 | -4.2 | |
| D.Sampson19% | 4 | 13% | 23 | +0.7 | |
| M.Corley37% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.6 | |
| H.Jr.92% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -3.6 | |
| S.Sanders97% | 1 | 3% | 6 | -1.4 | |
| I.Bond29% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Jr.92% | 5 | 22% | 3 | 43 | 1 | +1.6 |
| J.Jeudy84% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 26 | +0.5 | |
| J.Ford22% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 17 | +1.5 | |
| G.Larvadain29% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 23 | +1.5 | |
| Q.Judkins60% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 18 | +0.2 | |
| D.Njoku51% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| I.Bond29% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 18 | +0.3 | |
| C.Tillman63% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense M.Garrett 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
49ers give up 8.1 targets a game to tight ends (23rd), against a league average of 7.3. Browns' tight ends produce 9.9 (2nd).
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Browns send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
49ers give up 144 yards a game to wide receivers (19th), against a league average of 140. Browns' wide receivers produce 86 (32nd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Browns succeed on 35% of plays (32nd) against a defense that allows 49% (30th).
The Browns lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2003). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | SF 26 at CLE 8 |
| 2023 · Wk 6 | SF 17 at CLE 19 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | CLE 3 at SF 31 |
| 2015 · Wk 14 | SF 10 at CLE 24 |
| 2011 · Wk 8 | CLE 10 at SF 20 |
2025 records
| 49ers | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 5–12 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 7–2 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LLLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 21.8 | 16.4 – 22.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.19#31 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 35%#32 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#32 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#30 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.29#32 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#25 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#25 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#30 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#29 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#26 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 86#32 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 63#6 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.9#2 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#7 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.