2025
Week 13 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsSaints defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 17 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Dolphins won 21–17 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:35, 26 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:35MIAT.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (C.Robinson).72% → 98%
- 2Q4 1:17NOC.Smyth kicks onside 10 yards from NO 35 to NO 45. RECOVERED by NO-D.Vele. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was…4% → 27%
- 3Q4 1:17MIATWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. T.Shough pass to D.Vele is intercepted. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. M.Fitzpatrick intercepted the…84% → 96%
- 4Q4 0:39MIAT.Shough pass incomplete short right.63% → 72%
- 5Q4 1:02NOT.Shough pass short middle to D.Neal to MIA 36 for 9 yards (T.Dodson).33% → 41%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Vele led the Saints at +6.5 EPA (8 catches for 93). D.Achane led the Dolphins at +3.5 EPA (22 carries for 134).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough99% | 26/38 | 239 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -11.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Neal82% | 14 | 52% | 47 | -1.1 | |
| T.Shough99% | 6 | 22% | 18 | +2.0 | |
| E.Hull18% | 5 | 19% | 15 | -0.1 | |
| T.Hill17% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 | |
| M.Tipton85% | 1 | 4% | -1 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Johnson72% | 9 | 26% | 5 | 39 | -1.8 | |
| D.Vele88% | 8 | 24% | 8 | 93 | 1 | +6.5 |
| C.Olave88% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 47 | 1 | -1.8 |
| M.Tipton85% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 20 | -2.0 | |
| D.Neal82% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 22 | +0.3 | |
| F.Moreau38% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 13 | +0.7 | |
| T.Hill17% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 |
Defense C.Jordan 2 sacks, K.McKinstry 1 INT, C.Young 1 sack, B.Bresee 1 sack · Kicking C.Smyth 1/1 FG (long 56)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 12/23 | 157 | 1 | 4 | -8.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane73% | 22 | 69% | 134 | 1 | +4.5 |
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 4 | 13% | 4 | -1.6 | |
| J.Wright10% | 3 | 9% | 16 | +0.2 | |
| O.II27% | 3 | 9% | 10 | -2.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle92% | 6 | 30% | 3 | 40 | -2.3 | |
| M.Washington60% | 5 | 25% | 4 | 30 | +0.1 | |
| D.Waller47% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 47 | +2.0 | |
| C.Jr.17% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 16 | +0.3 | |
| G.Dulcich37% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 24 | +2.0 | |
| J.Hill55% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| D.Achane73% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense R.Douglas 1 INT, C.Robinson 1.5 sacks, M.Fitzpatrick 1 sack, B.Chubb 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 4/4 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Dolphins average 4.8 yards per carry (3rd). Saints allow 3.9 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Saints are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.24 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Saints
Dolphins convert 35% of third downs (26th). Saints allow 36% (4th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Dolphins gain 5.5 yards per play (14th). Saints give up 5.0 (7th), with the league at 5.4.
The series is even at 3–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). The Dolphins have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 13 | NO 17 at MIA 21 |
| 2021 · Wk 16 | MIA 20 at NO 3 |
| 2017 · Wk 4 | NO 20 at MIA 0 |
| 2013 · Wk 4 | MIA 17 at NO 38 |
| 2009 · Wk 7 | NO 46 at MIA 34 |
2025 records
| Saints | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 7–10 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Away | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors NO | NO def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#21 | -0.06#10 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#26 | 42%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.0#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 9%#16 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#18 | -0.05#12 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#9 | -0.12#4 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#3 | 3.9#9 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#26 | 36%#4 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#23 | 55%#11 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 110#26 | 122#6 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 50#19 | 51#13 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#25 | 7.4#17 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#9 | 24#3 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Saints: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.