2025
Week 16 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Colts offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 48–27 and were favored the whole way, never below 52%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 14:19, 13 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:19INDP.Rivers pass deep middle to A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.20% → 33%
- 2Q1 7:14SFE.Pineiro kicks 56 yards from SF 35 to IND 9. A.Abdullah to IND 27 for 18 yards (J.Brown). FUMBLES (J.Brown), RECOVERED by SF-J.Tonges at IND 26.66% → 77%
- 3Q1 11:45INDP.Rivers pass short right to J.Downs to SF 23 for 13 yards (U.Stout).33% → 42%
- 4Q2 9:42SFB.Purdy pass short right to G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.75% → 83%
- 5Q1 14:14INDP.Rivers pass short middle to J.Taylor to IND 49 for 19 yards (M.Mustapha).28% → 36%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Purdy led the 49ers at +22.7 EPA (25 of 34 for 295). A.Pierce led the Colts at +9.6 EPA (4 catches for 86).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy95% | 25/34 | 295 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +20.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey80% | 21 | 68% | 117 | +2.9 | |
| B.Robinson15% | 5 | 16% | 20 | -0.3 | |
| M.Jones5% | 3 | 10% | -3 | -3.0 | |
| B.Purdy95% | 2 | 6% | 11 | +2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey80% | 8 | 24% | 6 | 29 | 2 | +3.2 |
| G.Kittle62% | 8 | 24% | 7 | 115 | 1 | +9.8 |
| J.Jennings82% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 71 | 1 | +9.1 |
| K.Bourne70% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 27 | -4.3 | |
| D.Robinson44% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 23 | 1 | +2.2 |
| J.Tonges24% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 7 | +0.6 | |
| B.Robinson15% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| S.Moore11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 23 | +2.0 |
Defense D.Winters 1 INT, C.West 1 sack, A.Collins 1 sack · Kicking E.Pineiro 2/3 FG (long 38)
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Rivers93% | 23/35 | 277 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2.9 |
| R.Leonard7% | 0/1 | 0 | -3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor88% | 16 | 80% | 46 | 1 | -0.4 |
| T.Goodson8% | 3 | 15% | 9 | -1.2 | |
| J.Downs78% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Downs78% | 9 | 25% | 5 | 65 | +3.3 | |
| T.Warren88% | 9 | 25% | 3 | 30 | -11.8 | |
| M.Pittman93% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 32 | +0.2 | |
| A.Pierce97% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 86 | 2 | +9.6 |
| J.Taylor88% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 33 | +3.1 | |
| M.Alie-Cox22% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 16 | +1.4 | |
| A.Ogletree8% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 11 | +0.5 | |
| A.Abdullah7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +0.9 | |
| C.Owen2% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.3 |
Defense C.Bynum 1 INT, L.Latu 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 2/2 FG (long 51)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Colts take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (7th). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Colts send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
49ers give up 35 yards a game to running backs (23rd), against a league average of 32. Colts' running backs produce 29 (18th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Colts gain 5.9 yards per play (8th). 49ers give up 5.6 (21st), with the league at 5.4.
The Colts lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | SF 48 at IND 27 |
| 2021 · Wk 7 | IND 30 at SF 18 |
| 2017 · Wk 5 · OT | SF 23 at IND 26 |
| 2013 · Wk 3 | IND 27 at SF 7 |
| 2009 · Wk 8 | SF 14 at IND 18 |
2025 records
| 49ers | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Away | 7–2 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 21.8 | 27.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.