2025
Week 17 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bengals won 37–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 69%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 12:04, 8 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:04CINJ.Burrow pass deep middle to J.Chase to ARI 24 for 22 yards (W.Johnson).69% → 76%
- 2Q2 11:54ARIJ.Brissett pass short left to M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 16%
- 3Q1 14:11CINJ.Burrow pass short right to T.Hudson to CIN 43 for 13 yards (D.Hall).70% → 75%
- 4Q2 10:59ARIJ.Burrow sacked at CIN 30 for -8 yards (C.Campbell).16% → 21%
- 5Q1 12:12ARIJ.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to A.Iosivas (D.Burke) [L.Collier].27% → 32%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Wilson led the Cardinals at +4.4 EPA (5 catches for 89). J.Burrow led the Bengals at +20.7 EPA (24 of 31 for 305).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 21/37 | 212 | 2 | 4 | -0.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Carter44% | 7 | 54% | 29 | +0.7 | |
| E.Demercado53% | 5 | 38% | 11 | -1.6 | |
| C.Kiner4% | 1 | 8% | 2 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride96% | 13 | 37% | 10 | 76 | 1 | +3.0 |
| M.Wilson86% | 10 | 29% | 5 | 89 | 1 | +4.4 |
| M.Carter44% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 14 | -0.4 | |
| E.Demercado53% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 9 | -2.5 | |
| X.Weaver67% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 24 | +2.9 | |
| E.Higgins60% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| M.Jr.33% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense C.Campbell 1 sack, D.Tomlinson 1 sack, Z.Collins 0.5 sacks, C.Simon 0.5 sacks
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow83% | 24/31 | 305 | 2 | 3 | +19.0 | |
| J.Flacco17% | 3/5 | 24 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown61% | 22 | 63% | 101 | 2 | +2.2 |
| J.Flacco17% | 4 | 11% | 2 | +1.4 | |
| S.Perine31% | 3 | 9% | 5 | 1 | +0.4 |
| J.Burrow83% | 3 | 9% | 2 | +1.7 | |
| T.Brooks14% | 3 | 9% | 10 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase77% | 9 | 27% | 7 | 60 | 2 | +4.9 |
| A.Iosivas70% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 41 | +1.3 | |
| T.Higgins57% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 59 | +5.2 | |
| C.Brown61% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 40 | +1.1 | |
| T.Hudson26% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 31 | +4.7 | |
| M.Gesicki23% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 47 | +4.1 | |
| S.Perine31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +1.3 | |
| C.Ford | 1 | 3% | 1 | 21 | +1.7 | |
| D.Sample65% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 | |
| N.Fant22% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| T.Brooks14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.6 | |
| K.Williams10% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.0 |
Defense T.Slaton 1 sack, M.Murphy 1 sack, C.Johnson 1 sack, S.Stewart 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG (long 57)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Bengals score a touchdown on 73% of red zone trips (1st). Cardinals allow 66% (28th).
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Bengals gain -0.03 EPA per dropback (23rd). Cardinals allow +0.15 (27th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Bengals create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (27th). Cardinals give them up at 11% (24th).
The series is even at 4–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Bengals have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | ARI 14 at CIN 37 |
| 2023 · Wk 5 | CIN 34 at ARI 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | ARI 26 at CIN 23 |
| 2015 · Wk 11 | CIN 31 at ARI 34 |
| 2011 · Wk 16 | ARI 16 at CIN 23 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 6–11 |
| Division | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 1–4 |
| Home | 1–7 | 3–6 |
| Away | 2–7 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLWWL |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 36#24 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.