2025
Week 17 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 18 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 23–17; their low point was 34% at Q2 11:20. The game turned for good at Q3 5:58: B.Grupe kicks 63 yards from IND 35 to JAX 2. L.Allen to JAX 33 for 31 yards (L.Treadwell) (49% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 7:59, 19 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 7:59JAXP.Rivers pass short left intended for J.Downs INTERCEPTED by J.Jones at IND 34. J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (J.Downs).56% → 74%
- 2Q1 6:13INDT.Lawrence pass short left to J.Meyers to IND 16 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at IND 17, RECOVERED by IND-S.Ebukam at IND 17.29% → 47%
- 3Q3 8:03JAXT.Lawrence pass deep right to P.Washington pushed ob at IND 6 for 37 yards (C.Mitchell) [K.Paye]. Penalty on IND-M.Blackmon, Defensive Holding,…53% → 68%
- 4Q2 2:00JAXL.Cooke punts 61 yards to IND 10 J.Downs to IND 10 for no gain (R.Lane).42% → 55%
- 5Q4 9:30INDW.T.Lawrence up the middle to IND 24 for no gain (A.Adebawore). (Virtual Measurement).34% → 47%
- ★Q3 5:58JAXB.Grupe kicks 63 yards from IND 35 to JAX 2. L.Allen to JAX 33 for 31 yards (L.Treadwell).turning point49% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +5.8 EPA (23 of 37 for 263). T.Warren led the Colts at +4.2 EPA (5 catches for 43).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 23/37 | 263 | 1 | 2 | +6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne70% | 17 | 59% | 76 | -1.1 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 8 | 28% | 26 | 2 | -0.6 |
| D.Dallas14% | 2 | 7% | 21 | +1.4 | |
| P.Washington81% | 1 | 3% | -5 | -0.1 | |
| L.Jr.19% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Washington81% | 10 | 27% | 8 | 115 | +4.9 | |
| J.Meyers94% | 9 | 24% | 6 | 39 | -4.7 | |
| B.Jr.78% | 7 | 19% | 4 | 39 | +0.8 | |
| B.Strange81% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 54 | +4.4 | |
| T.Etienne70% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 16 | +0.3 | |
| J.Mundt25% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| T.Patrick17% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| D.Dallas14% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense A.Johnson 1 INT, J.Jones 1 INT, J.Hines-Allen 1 sack, T.Walker 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 3/3 FG (long 53)
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Rivers98% | 17/30 | 147 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -11.6 |
| R.Leonard2% | 0/1 | 0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor89% | 21 | 95% | 70 | 1 | +0.9 |
| P.Rivers98% | 1 | 5% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor89% | 6 | 21% | 3 | 14 | -2.8 | |
| A.Pierce91% | 5 | 17% | 0 | 0 | -4.5 | |
| J.Downs61% | 5 | 17% | 2 | 34 | -4.9 | |
| T.Warren86% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 43 | +4.2 | |
| M.Alie-Cox42% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 20 | 1 | +2.1 |
| M.Pittman86% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 16 | -0.7 | |
| A.Abdullah9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 | |
| W.Mallory19% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +1.5 |
Defense G.Pratt 1 INT, A.Adebawore 1 sack, L.Latu 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 1/1 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Colts take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (7th). Jaguars get home on 5% (30th). League average is 7%.
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Colts send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Colts gain +0.06 EPA per dropback (10th). Jaguars allow -0.12 (4th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Colts average +0.08 EPA per play (7th). Jaguars allow -0.09 (6th). League average is +0.01.
The Colts lead the series 27–23 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Jaguars have won the last 3. Nov 1, 2026, at EverBank Stadium: the Jaguars won 42–7. Trevor Lawrence started at quarterback for the Jaguars and Daniel Jones for the Colts; Liam Coen and Shane Steichen coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | IND 7 at JAX 42 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | JAX 23 at IND 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | IND 19 at JAX 36 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 · OT | JAX 23 at IND 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | IND 34 at JAX 37 |
2025 records
| Jaguars | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13–4 | 8–9 |
| Division | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Away | 6–2 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 8 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 27.9 – 19.8 | 27.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | -0.09#6 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 42%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 8%#3 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | -0.12#4 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 5%#30 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.07#16 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 3.7#4 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 42%#21 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 64%#24 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 143#18 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 59#23 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 8.7#31 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 32#20 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.