2025
Week 18 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Browns won 20–18 from as low as 7% (Q1 1:11, down 6–0). The Bengals had been 76% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:39: S.Sanders pass short left to J.Jeudy to CIN 38 for 11 yards (D.Hill). CIN-D.Hill was injured during the play (41% → 63%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:03, 50 points for the Browns.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:03CLEA.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD ** Injury Update: CIN-D.Hill has returned to the game.50% → 100%
- 2Q2 14:19CINJ.Burrow pass short left to N.Fant to CIN 46 for 5 yards (J.Baker; G.Delpit). FUMBLES (J.Baker), RECOVERED by CLE-S.Webb at CIN 47. S.Webb for 47…23% → 48%
- 3Q4 0:39CLES.Sanders pass short left to J.Jeudy to CIN 38 for 11 yards (D.Hill). CIN-D.Hill was injured during the play.turning point41% → 63%
- 4Q1 1:11CINJ.Burrow pass short left intended for T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by D.Bush (S.Harris) at CLE 3. D.Bush for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-D.Bush,…7% → 27%
- 5Q4 1:57CINJ.Burrow pass short right to T.Higgins pushed ob at CLE 25 for 17 yards (D.Ross).40% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Corley led the Browns at +2.3 EPA (2 catches for 20). J.Chase led the Bengals at +7.9 EPA (8 catches for 96).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Sanders100% | 11/22 | 111 | 6 | -9.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sampson50% | 10 | 42% | 32 | -0.8 | |
| R.Sanders27% | 5 | 21% | 26 | -1.4 | |
| M.Corley42% | 3 | 13% | 18 | +0.6 | |
| S.Sanders100% | 3 | 13% | 26 | +2.2 | |
| T.Williams21% | 1 | 4% | 7 | -0.1 | |
| J.Jeudy88% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +2.7 | |
| I.Bond54% | 1 | 4% | 4 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jeudy88% | 6 | 29% | 2 | 17 | -2.9 | |
| D.Sampson50% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 12 | +0.1 | |
| T.Williams21% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 13 | -1.7 | |
| C.Tillman77% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 23 | +2.2 | |
| M.Corley42% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 20 | +1.7 | |
| I.Bond54% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 13 | +0.6 | |
| S.Cannella21% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| B.Whiteheart65% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| B.Bates46% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 6 | +0.2 | |
| R.Sanders27% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | +1.2 |
Defense D.Bush 1 INT, M.Garrett 1 sack, G.Delpit 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/2 FG (long 49)
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow99% | 29/39 | 236 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -3.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown56% | 13 | 52% | 72 | +1.7 | |
| S.Perine49% | 8 | 32% | 42 | +0.6 | |
| J.Burrow99% | 2 | 8% | 17 | +1.7 | |
| J.Flacco1% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.3 | |
| K.Williams3% | 1 | 4% | 9 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase100% | 10 | 26% | 8 | 96 | 1 | +7.9 |
| T.Higgins87% | 9 | 24% | 6 | 67 | 1 | -7.4 |
| C.Brown56% | 6 | 16% | 4 | 18 | 1 | -1.8 |
| S.Perine49% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 10 | -2.0 | |
| D.Sample72% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 17 | +1.3 | |
| A.Iosivas53% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 10 | -0.2 | |
| M.Gesicki38% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 13 | +2.2 | |
| N.Fant22% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -8.9 |
Defense C.Sample 2 sacks, B.Hill 1 sack, T.Slaton 1 sack, C.Johnson 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Bengals score a touchdown on 73% of red zone trips (1st). Browns allow 63% (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Bengals gain -0.03 EPA per dropback (23rd). Browns allow -0.13 (3rd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bengals succeed on 46% of plays (10th) against a defense that allows 40% (4th).
The Bengals lead the series 32–22 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 18 | CLE 20 at CIN 18 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | CIN 17 at CLE 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | CLE 6 at CIN 24 |
| 2024 · Wk 7 | CIN 21 at CLE 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 18 | CLE 14 at CIN 31 |
2025 records
| Browns | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 6–11 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Home | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Away | 2–6 | 3–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 16.4 – 22.3 | 24.4 – 28.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.