2025
Week 18 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Vikings, 18 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 16–3 and were favored the whole way, never below 80%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 4:10, 6 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 4:10GBD.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Touchback.10% → 16%
- 2Q1 10:32MINW.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD82% → 88%
- 3Q1 0:51MINR.Wright punts 49 yards to GB 10, downed by MIN-T.Felton.81% → 86%
- 4Q1 12:19MINJ.McCarthy scrambles right tackle pushed ob at GB 23 for 6 yards (K.Nixon). PENALTY on MIN-J.McCarthy, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at GB 23.11% → 16%
- 5Q1 9:14GBD.Whelan punts 62 yards to MIN 2, downed by GB-B.Melton.14% → 19%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Whyle led the Packers at -0.1 EPA (1 catches for 4). J.McCarthy led the Vikings at +7.0 EPA (14 of 23 for 182).
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Tune100% | 6/11 | 34 | 4 | -13.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Wilson55% | 18 | 51% | 44 | -3.3 | |
| C.Brooks45% | 13 | 37% | 61 | -2.3 | |
| C.Tune100% | 4 | 11% | 23 | +2.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Golden100% | 3 | 30% | 1 | 8 | -0.4 | |
| J.Keeney-James94% | 2 | 20% | 2 | 15 | -0.1 | |
| D.Dabney88% | 2 | 20% | 1 | 3 | -0.8 | |
| B.Melton | 1 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| J.Whyle73% | 1 | 10% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 | |
| E.Wilson55% | 1 | 10% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 |
Defense B.Jr. 1 sack, B.Sorrell 1 sack · Kicking B.McManus 1/1 FG (long 24)
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy64% | 14/23 | 182 | +7.6 | |||
| M.Brosmer36% | 7/8 | 57 | 2 | -5.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason40% | 14 | 45% | 94 | -0.2 | |
| T.Chandler43% | 10 | 32% | 23 | -4.5 | |
| Z.Scott9% | 3 | 10% | 9 | -0.8 | |
| J.McCarthy64% | 2 | 6% | 7 | -0.5 | |
| C.Ham31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | +1.2 |
| J.Jefferson76% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson76% | 11 | 37% | 8 | 101 | +4.4 | |
| T.Chandler43% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 11 | -0.8 | |
| B.Sims34% | 4 | 13% | 1 | 18 | +0.2 | |
| J.Nailor75% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 49 | +3.5 | |
| J.Addison93% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 8 | -0.2 | |
| J.Oliver46% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 29 | +2.3 | |
| C.Ham31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.7 | |
| Z.Scott9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +1.0 | |
| B.Yurosek39% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +1.1 |
Defense D.Turner 2 sacks, B.Cashman 1 sack, T.Jackson 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 3/3 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Vikings score a touchdown on 60% of red zone trips (13th). Packers allow 59% (16th).
Deep right is open
Packers are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.52 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 10% of their throws there.
Tight ends go quiet
Packers give up 50 yards a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 53. Vikings' tight ends produce 38 (29th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Vikings average -0.12 EPA per play (28th). Packers allow +0.04 (22nd). League average is +0.01.
The Packers lead the series 31–24–2 since 1999. The Vikings have won the last 2. Sep 13, 2026, at U.S. Bank Stadium: the Vikings won 39–22. Kyler Murray started at quarterback for the Vikings and Jordan Love for the Packers; Kevin O'Connell and Matt LaFleur coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | GB 22 at MIN 39 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | GB 3 at MIN 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 12 | MIN 6 at GB 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | GB 25 at MIN 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | MIN 31 at GB 29 |
2025 records
| Packers | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–7–1 | 9–8 |
| Division | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 7–4–1 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Away | 4–4–1 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 5 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 21.2 | 20.2 – 19.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Packers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#28 | +0.04#22 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#23 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#28 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 8%#5 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#30 | +0.09#23 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#31 | 6%#26 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#18 | -0.05#17 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#11 | 4.1#13 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 33%#31 | 42%#20 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#13 | 59%#16 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#22 | 136#15 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#29 | 50#12 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#29 | 8.2#24 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 22#28 | 29#12 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.