2025
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
vs
Saints offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 19 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 26–21; their low point was 50% at Q1 13:21. The game turned for good at Q1 13:21: S.Rattler pass incomplete deep left to C.Olave (50% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 1:44, 19 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 1:44SFS.Rattler pass short right to A.Kamara to SF 29 for 1 yard (J.Brown). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play…62% → 82%
- 2Q4 1:03SFS.Rattler sacked at NO 34 for -8 yards (B.Huff). FUMBLES (B.Huff) [B.Huff], touched at NO 33, recovered by NO-C.Ruiz at NO 27.86% → 99%
- 3Q2 1:20NOS.Rattler pass deep left to J.Johnson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.…18% → 30%
- 4Q1 13:13SFB.Grupe 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right55% → 65%
- 5Q4 12:26SFM.Jones pass deep middle to J.Jennings for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.83% → 93%
- ★Q1 13:21SFS.Rattler pass incomplete deep left to C.Olave.turning point50% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.McCaffrey led the 49ers at +6.8 EPA (13 carries for 55). R.Shaheed led the Saints at +3.1 EPA (4 catches for 52).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jones100% | 26/39 | 279 | 3 | 3 | +2.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey77% | 13 | 50% | 55 | +0.9 | |
| M.Jones100% | 6 | 23% | 6 | -3.0 | |
| B.Robinson23% | 6 | 23% | 20 | -0.2 | |
| R.Pearsall89% | 1 | 4% | -4 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jennings87% | 10 | 26% | 5 | 89 | 1 | +1.5 |
| C.McCaffrey77% | 7 | 18% | 6 | 52 | 1 | +5.9 |
| R.Pearsall89% | 6 | 16% | 4 | 56 | +4.9 | |
| J.Tonges79% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 31 | -1.0 | |
| K.Bourne49% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 32 | +2.1 | |
| L.Farrell58% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 15 | 1 | +1.3 |
| K.Juszczyk14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.2 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling13% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| B.Robinson23% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -1 | -1.4 | |
| B.Willis8% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense N.Bosa 1 sack, B.Huff 1 sack, U.Stout 1 sack · Kicking E.Pineiro 2/2 FG (long 46)
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler100% | 25/34 | 207 | 3 | 3 | -2.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara86% | 21 | 70% | 99 | +0.4 | |
| K.Miller15% | 5 | 17% | 8 | -1.8 | |
| S.Rattler100% | 4 | 13% | 14 | +3.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave100% | 10 | 29% | 6 | 54 | -1.7 | |
| J.Johnson96% | 9 | 26% | 5 | 49 | 1 | +1.8 |
| A.Kamara86% | 6 | 18% | 6 | 21 | -6.4 | |
| R.Shaheed70% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 52 | 1 | +3.1 |
| B.Cooks68% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 26 | +2.7 | |
| K.Miller15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.9 | |
| D.Vele34% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | 1 | +0.9 |
Defense C.Granderson 2 sacks, C.II 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Saints take a sack on 8% of dropbacks (22nd). 49ers get home on 4% (32nd). League average is 7%.
Deep middle is open
49ers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Saints send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Saints score a touchdown on 43% of red zone trips (32nd). 49ers allow 59% (20th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Saints average -0.09 EPA per play (27th). 49ers allow +0.07 (24th). League average is +0.01.
The Saints lead the series 12–9 since 1999. The 49ers have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 2 | SF 26 at NO 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 | NO 0 at SF 13 |
| 2020 · Wk 10 | SF 13 at NO 27 |
| 2019 · Wk 14 | SF 48 at NO 46 |
| 2016 · Wk 9 | NO 41 at SF 23 |
2025 records
| 49ers | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 6–11 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Away | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 21.8 | 18.0 – 22.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | +0.07#24 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 49%#30 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 5.6#21 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 8%#4 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | +0.11#25 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 4%#32 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | -0.02#23 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 4.4#22 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 41%#18 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 59%#20 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 144#19 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 53#17 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 8.1#23 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 35#23 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.