2025
Week 2 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Colts won 29–28 from as low as 11% (Q4 12:14, down 28–23). The Broncos had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:03: S.Shrader 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short PENALTY on DEN-D.Tillman, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play (30% → 63%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:00, 37 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:00INDS.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD63% → 100%
- 2Q4 0:03INDS.Shrader 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short PENALTY on DEN-D.Tillman, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play.turning point30% → 63%
- 3Q4 0:17DENJ.Taylor up the middle to DEN 42 for -2 yards (J.Cooper).48% → 70%
- 4Q4 1:50INDD.Jones pass short right to A.Pierce to DEN 43 for 7 yards (P.Surtain).38% → 58%
- 5Q4 10:13INDJ.Taylor right guard pushed ob at DEN 12 for 68 yards (T.Hufanga).24% → 42%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Nix led the Broncos at +9.5 EPA (22 of 30 for 206). D.Jones led the Colts at +10.5 EPA (23 of 34 for 316).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 22/30 | 206 | 3 | 1 | +8.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins45% | 14 | 58% | 76 | 1 | +3.2 |
| R.Harvey33% | 5 | 21% | 8 | -2.6 | |
| B.Nix100% | 3 | 13% | 20 | +1.1 | |
| T.Badie22% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| T.Franklin83% | 1 | 4% | 11 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Franklin83% | 9 | 30% | 8 | 89 | 1 | +5.8 |
| C.Sutton78% | 4 | 13% | 1 | 6 | -5.7 | |
| A.Trautman62% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 10 | 1 | +1.5 |
| P.Bryant24% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 18 | +2.2 | |
| E.Engram43% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 12 | -0.3 | |
| J.Dobbins45% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 9 | +0.3 | |
| T.Badie22% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 19 | +2.4 | |
| M.Jr.36% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 24 | 1 | +1.7 |
| R.Harvey33% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 16 | +0.6 | |
| T.Sherfield38% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 |
Defense J.Strnad 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 0/1 FG
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 23/34 | 316 | 1 | 1 | +11.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor93% | 25 | 78% | 165 | +3.0 | |
| D.Jones100% | 6 | 19% | 2 | 1 | -0.5 |
| T.Warren93% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -3.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Downs58% | 8 | 24% | 6 | 51 | +2.1 | |
| T.Warren93% | 7 | 21% | 4 | 79 | +1.6 | |
| M.Pittman83% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 40 | +2.9 | |
| A.Pierce90% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 68 | +2.9 | |
| A.Mitchell10% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 20 | +0.2 | |
| J.Taylor93% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 50 | 1 | +5.0 |
| M.Alie-Cox35% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.4 | |
| D.Giddens7% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
Defense C.Bynum 1 INT · Kicking S.Shrader 5/5 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 7.3. Colts' tight ends produce 8.2 (9th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Colts send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Broncos give up 21 yards a game to running backs (2nd), against a league average of 32. Colts' running backs produce 29 (18th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Colts average +0.08 EPA per play (7th). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Colts lead the series 14–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 2 | DEN 28 at IND 29 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | IND 13 at DEN 31 |
| 2022 · Wk 5 · OT | IND 12 at DEN 9 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | DEN 13 at IND 15 |
| 2017 · Wk 15 | DEN 25 at IND 13 |
2025 records
| Broncos | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 8–9 |
| Division | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Home | 8–1 | 6–3 |
| Away | 6–2 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 18.3 | 27.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#7 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#6 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#8 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#19 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#10 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#7 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.06#2 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#8 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#7 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#3 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 154#11 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#10 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.2#9 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#18 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.