2025
Week 3 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
49ers offensevsCardinals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for 49ers, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 16–15 from as low as 15% (Q4 2:18, down 15–13). The game turned for good at Q4 1:08: M.Jones pass short right to K.Bourne to ARI 47 for 7 yards (J.Thompson) (47% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:04, 46 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:04SFE.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD54% → 100%
- 2Q4 3:26ARIM.Jones sacked at SF 6 for 0 yards (Ma.Wilson). PENALTY on SF-D.Puni, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.49% → 73%
- 3Q4 5:19ARIM.Jones pass short right intended for R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by D.Taylor-Demerson at ARI 21. D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 39 for 18 yards (T.Williams).34% → 58%
- 4Q4 12:06SFM.Jones pass deep right to R.Pearsall pushed ob at ARI 6 for 34 yards (K.Clark).58% → 75%
- 5Q4 1:54SFB.Gillikin punts 50 yards to end zone, Touchback.25% → 42%
- ★Q4 1:08SFM.Jones pass short right to K.Bourne to ARI 47 for 7 yards (J.Thompson).turning point47% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Wilson led the Cardinals at +2.4 EPA (1 catches for 5). R.Pearsall led the 49ers at +4.0 EPA (8 catches for 117).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray100% | 22/35 | 159 | 1 | 1 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Benson61% | 10 | 36% | 42 | -0.5 | |
| J.Conner30% | 9 | 32% | 22 | +0.3 | |
| K.Murray100% | 6 | 21% | 37 | +2.6 | |
| E.Demercado11% | 2 | 7% | 0 | -2.5 | |
| G.Dortch24% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride88% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 43 | 1 | +0.7 |
| M.Jr.80% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 44 | +1.9 | |
| J.Conner30% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 15 | -0.1 | |
| T.Benson61% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 9 | -3.1 | |
| Z.Jones50% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 25 | +1.9 | |
| T.Reiman50% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 8 | -0.6 | |
| G.Dortch24% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 3 | -1.0 | |
| M.Wilson74% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 5 | +2.4 | |
| E.Demercado11% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| E.Higgins15% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +1.1 |
Defense D.Taylor-Demerson 1 INT, J.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 2/3 FG (long 34)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jones100% | 27/41 | 284 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey91% | 17 | 85% | 52 | -6.0 | |
| B.Robinson9% | 2 | 10% | 22 | +1.1 | |
| M.Jones100% | 1 | 5% | -1 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey91% | 15 | 39% | 10 | 88 | -2.2 | |
| R.Pearsall97% | 11 | 29% | 8 | 117 | +4.0 | |
| K.Bourne72% | 6 | 16% | 4 | 38 | +0.1 | |
| J.Tonges69% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 21 | +0.7 | |
| K.Juszczyk34% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.8 |
| M.Valdes-Scantling26% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| S.Moore52% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +0.2 |
Defense B.Huff 1 sack · Kicking E.Pineiro 3/3 FG (long 51)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor 49ers
49ers convert 51% of third downs (1st). Cardinals allow 46% (29th).
Deep middle is open
Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. 49ers send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Cardinals give up 137 yards a game to wide receivers (16th), against a league average of 140. 49ers' wide receivers produce 124 (24th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. 49ers create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (22nd). Cardinals give them up at 11% (24th).
The 49ers lead the series 29–22 since 1999. They have won the last 3. Sep 27, 2026, at Levi's Stadium: the 49ers won 36–30. Brock Purdy started at quarterback for the 49ers and Jacoby Brissett for the Cardinals; Kyle Shanahan and Jonathan Gannon coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | ARI 30 at SF 36 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | SF 41 at ARI 22 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | ARI 15 at SF 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | SF 24 at ARI 47 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | ARI 24 at SF 23 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 12–5 |
| Division | 0–6 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 3–2 |
| Home | 1–7 | 5–3 |
| Away | 2–7 | 7–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 25.7 – 21.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SF off | Favors SF · Favors ARI | ARI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#9 | +0.09#27 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 48%#3 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 5.8#25 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 11%#24 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#8 | +0.15#27 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#4 | 5%#28 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#13 | -0.02#25 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#29 | 4.7#26 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 51%#1 | 46%#29 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#2 | 66%#28 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 124#24 | 137#16 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#12 | 69#30 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#13 | 8.4#30 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 69#1 | 36#24 | 32 | |
49ers: EPA per throw
Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.