2025
Week 3 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Saints offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 44–13 and were favored the whole way, never below 75%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 11:42, 6 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 11:42SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NO 26 for 29 yards (A.Taylor).79% → 85%
- 2Q1 7:51NOK.Kroeger punts 61 yards to SEA 5 T.Horton for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.89% → 94%
- 3Q1 4:58NOK.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by D.Bell, recovered by NO-J.Ford at NO 11.95% → 98%
- 4Q1 12:30NOS.Rattler pass incomplete short right to J.Johnson.75% → 78%
- 5Q1 12:26NOS.Rattler pass incomplete deep right to A.Kamara.78% → 80%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Stoll led the Saints at +2.0 EPA (2 catches for 21). S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +17.0 EPA (14 of 18 for 218).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler96% | 28/39 | 218 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1.4 |
| T.Shough4% | 0/2 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara74% | 18 | 67% | 42 | -7.3 | |
| K.Miller27% | 7 | 26% | 27 | -0.7 | |
| S.Rattler96% | 2 | 7% | 10 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave85% | 14 | 34% | 10 | 57 | +1.9 | |
| J.Johnson90% | 8 | 20% | 6 | 51 | +1.1 | |
| R.Shaheed74% | 6 | 15% | 4 | 42 | -0.3 | |
| B.Cooks70% | 5 | 12% | 3 | 24 | -2.1 | |
| J.Stoll32% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 21 | 1 | +2.0 |
| A.Kamara74% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 14 | -0.8 | |
| K.Miller27% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 9 | -0.1 | |
| K.Jr.30% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Grupe 2/3 FG (long 27)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold68% | 14/18 | 218 | 2 | +17.0 | ||
| D.Lock32% | 2/3 | 15 | -0.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III53% | 16 | 48% | 38 | 2 | -0.7 |
| G.Holani35% | 10 | 30% | 27 | -7.5 | |
| J.Wright9% | 5 | 15% | 20 | +0.0 | |
| D.Lock32% | 1 | 3% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| J.Milroe2% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba49% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 96 | 1 | +7.5 |
| T.Horton49% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +1.2 |
| C.Kupp54% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 31 | +3.7 | |
| G.Holani35% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 15 | -0.1 | |
| E.Saubert46% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 12 | +1.8 | |
| D.Young28% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 12 | +0.8 | |
| K.III53% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 12 | +0.6 | |
| A.Barner54% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 23 | +2.0 | |
| E.Arroyo49% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense D.Kendrick 1 INT, B.II 1 sack, L.Williams 0.5 sacks, T.Okada 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Myers 3/3 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Seahawks give up 63 yards a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 53. Saints' tight ends produce 60 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Saints send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Saints average 3.5 yards per carry (31st). Seahawks allow 3.5 (1st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Saints succeed on 42% of plays (25th) against a defense that allows 40% (3rd).
The Seahawks lead the series 7–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 3 | NO 13 at SEA 44 |
| 2022 · Wk 5 | SEA 32 at NO 39 |
| 2021 · Wk 7 | NO 13 at SEA 10 |
| 2019 · Wk 3 | NO 33 at SEA 27 |
| 2016 · Wk 8 | SEA 20 at NO 25 |
2025 records
| Saints | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 14–3 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Away | 3–6 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.