2025
Week 3 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Seahawks offensevsSaints defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 17 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 44–13 and were favored the whole way, never below 75%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 11:42, 6 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 11:42SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NO 26 for 29 yards (A.Taylor).79% → 85%
- 2Q1 7:51NOK.Kroeger punts 61 yards to SEA 5 T.Horton for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.89% → 94%
- 3Q1 4:58NOK.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by D.Bell, recovered by NO-J.Ford at NO 11.95% → 98%
- 4Q1 12:30NOS.Rattler pass incomplete short right to J.Johnson.75% → 78%
- 5Q1 12:26NOS.Rattler pass incomplete deep right to A.Kamara.78% → 80%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Stoll led the Saints at +2.0 EPA (2 catches for 21). S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +17.0 EPA (14 of 18 for 218).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler96% | 28/39 | 218 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1.4 |
| T.Shough4% | 0/2 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara74% | 18 | 67% | 42 | -7.3 | |
| K.Miller27% | 7 | 26% | 27 | -0.7 | |
| S.Rattler96% | 2 | 7% | 10 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave85% | 14 | 34% | 10 | 57 | +1.9 | |
| J.Johnson90% | 8 | 20% | 6 | 51 | +1.1 | |
| R.Shaheed74% | 6 | 15% | 4 | 42 | -0.3 | |
| B.Cooks70% | 5 | 12% | 3 | 24 | -2.1 | |
| J.Stoll32% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 21 | 1 | +2.0 |
| A.Kamara74% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 14 | -0.8 | |
| K.Miller27% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 9 | -0.1 | |
| K.Jr.30% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Grupe 2/3 FG (long 27)
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold68% | 14/18 | 218 | 2 | +17.0 | ||
| D.Lock32% | 2/3 | 15 | -0.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III53% | 16 | 48% | 38 | 2 | -0.7 |
| G.Holani35% | 10 | 30% | 27 | -7.5 | |
| J.Wright9% | 5 | 15% | 20 | +0.0 | |
| D.Lock32% | 1 | 3% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| J.Milroe2% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba49% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 96 | 1 | +7.5 |
| T.Horton49% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +1.2 |
| C.Kupp54% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 31 | +3.7 | |
| G.Holani35% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 15 | -0.1 | |
| E.Saubert46% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 12 | +1.8 | |
| D.Young28% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 12 | +0.8 | |
| K.III53% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 12 | +0.6 | |
| A.Barner54% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 23 | +2.0 | |
| E.Arroyo49% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense D.Kendrick 1 INT, B.II 1 sack, L.Williams 0.5 sacks, T.Okada 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Myers 3/3 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Seahawks gain +0.13 EPA per dropback (7th). Saints allow -0.05 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Saints are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.24 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Seahawks' run game is 21st in EPA per carry (-0.06). Saints allow -0.12 (4th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Seahawks succeed on 46% of plays (8th) against a defense that allows 42% (7th).
The Seahawks lead the series 7–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 3 | NO 13 at SEA 44 |
| 2022 · Wk 5 | SEA 32 at NO 39 |
| 2021 · Wk 7 | NO 13 at SEA 10 |
| 2019 · Wk 3 | NO 33 at SEA 27 |
| 2016 · Wk 8 | SEA 20 at NO 25 |
2025 records
| Saints | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 14–3 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Away | 3–6 | 8–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 7 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 28.4 – 17.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors NO | NO def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | -0.06#10 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 42%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 5.0#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 9%#16 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | -0.05#12 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.12#4 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 3.9#9 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 36%#4 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 55%#11 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 122#6 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 51#13 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 7.4#17 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 24#3 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Saints: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.