2025
Week 4 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 17 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 27–20 from as low as 18% (Q4 8:02, down 20–13). The game turned for good at Q4 2:10: D.Jones sacked at IND 33 for -9 yards (J.Verse). FUMBLES (J.Verse), recovered by IND-B.Raimann at IND 29 (46% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:44, 27 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:44LAM.Stafford pass deep left to T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Ebukam].64% → 90%
- 2Q4 3:24LAM.Stafford pass short left to P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.28% → 48%
- 3Q4 11:29INDK.Williams up the middle to LA 22 for -5 yards (M.Hilton). FUMBLES (M.Hilton), RECOVERED by IND-A.Adebawore at LA 17.62% → 81%
- 4Q2 0:11LAM.Stafford pass short left to D.Adams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.55% → 71%
- 5Q2 2:23INDR.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LA 4, out of bounds.46% → 61%
- ★Q4 2:10LAD.Jones sacked at IND 33 for -9 yards (J.Verse). FUMBLES (J.Verse), recovered by IND-B.Raimann at IND 29.turning point46% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Warren led the Colts at +6.6 EPA (5 catches for 70). P.Nacua led the Rams at +13.6 EPA (13 catches for 170).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 24/33 | 262 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor87% | 17 | 81% | 76 | -3.8 | |
| T.Warren89% | 2 | 10% | 3 | 1 | +1.8 |
| A.Dulin20% | 1 | 5% | 7 | +0.5 | |
| D.Jones100% | 1 | 5% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Pittman93% | 10 | 31% | 5 | 41 | 1 | -2.2 |
| T.Warren89% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 70 | +4.8 | |
| J.Taylor87% | 5 | 16% | 5 | 20 | -1.6 | |
| J.Downs62% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 24 | +2.0 | |
| A.Mitchell89% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 96 | -4.0 | |
| A.Dulin20% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +1.8 | |
| T.Goodson7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense M.Blackmon 1 sack, L.Latu 1 sack, N.Cross 0.5 sacks, A.Adebawore 0.5 sacks · Kicking S.Shrader 2/2 FG (long 52)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 29/41 | 375 | 3 | 3 | +14.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams68% | 13 | 50% | 77 | -2.4 | |
| B.Corum29% | 9 | 35% | 21 | -2.9 | |
| M.Stafford100% | 4 | 15% | 4 | -6.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua81% | 15 | 38% | 13 | 170 | 1 | +13.6 |
| D.Adams83% | 6 | 15% | 4 | 56 | 1 | +5.4 |
| T.Higbee55% | 5 | 13% | 2 | 25 | -2.6 | |
| K.Williams68% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 17 | -0.2 | |
| B.Corum29% | 4 | 10% | 2 | -5 | -3.2 | |
| C.Parkinson28% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 17 | +0.9 | |
| T.Atwell28% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 88 | 1 | +4.9 |
| D.Allen29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| J.Whittington80% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.4 |
Defense K.Curl 2 INT, B.Young 1 sack, J.Verse 1 sack · Kicking J.Karty 2/2 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Colts give up 168 yards a game to wide receivers (31st), against a league average of 140. Rams' wide receivers produce 192 (2nd).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.86 EPA per attempt. Rams send 10% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Colts give up 24 yards a game to running backs (4th), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 21 (30th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (6th). Colts give them up at 9% (14th).
The Rams lead the series 6–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 5. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | IND 20 at LA 27 |
| 2023 · Wk 4 · OT | LA 29 at IND 23 |
| 2021 · Wk 2 | LA 27 at IND 24 |
| 2017 · Wk 1 | IND 9 at LA 46 |
| 2013 · Wk 10 | LA 38 at IND 8 |
2025 records
| Colts | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 6–3 | 7–1 |
| Away | 2–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWLLW |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 24.2 | 30.5 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | +0.00#16 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 9%#14 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | +0.04#18 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.09#8 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 3.8#5 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 44%#25 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 56%#12 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 168#31 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 70#31 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 8.4#29 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 24#4 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.